Ballkani
vs
Drenica Skënderaj
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ballkani
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ballkani is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ballkani vs Drenica Skënderaj overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ballkani vs Drenica Skënderaj
| Probability | Ballkani | Draw | Drenica Skënderaj |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.8% | 31.2% | 27.0% |
| Market | 58.2% | 25.2% | 16.6% |
| Final | 54.1% | 26.7% | 19.2% |
| Edge | -4.1% | +1.5% | +2.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.4% per unit staked (our 54.1% × 1.60 − 1).
Ballkani vs Drenica Skënderaj match preview
Ballkani enters this match against Drenica Skënderaj with a probability of 54% to win, while Drenica Skënderaj has a 19% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Ballkani, with an expected goals tally of 1.26 for Ballkani and 0.96 for Drenica Skënderaj. Recent form shows Ballkani struggling with two losses, a win, a draw, and two more losses, whereas Drenica Skënderaj has recorded two draws, a loss, and two wins in their last five matches.
Historically, Ballkani has dominated their recent encounters with Drenica Skënderaj, winning 8 out of the last 10 meetings, with only 1 draw and 1 win for Drenica Skënderaj. The model indicates a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ballkani and Drenica Skënderaj expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.22
Ballkani and Drenica Skënderaj attack and defence ratings
Ballkani
Drenica Skënderaj
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ballkani vs Drenica Skënderaj markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ballkani | 54.1% | 1.85 | -4.1% | 1.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ballkani | 54.1% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Drenica Skënderaj | 19.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.5% |
| No | 54.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ballkani win | 19.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 58.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 1-0 | 12.4% | |
| 0-0 | 12.2% |
Ballkani vs Drenica Skënderaj stats
Ballkani and Drenica Skënderaj recent form
| Ballkani |
LLWLDL |
| Drenica Skënderaj |
LDLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ballkani and Drenica Skënderaj season so far
Ballkani record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Drenica Skënderaj record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
Ballkani vs Drenica Skënderaj head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Drenica Skënderaj | Ballkani | Kosovo Superliga | 0-2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Drenica Skënderaj | Ballkani | Kosovo Superliga | 1-2 |
| 2026-03-01 | Ballkani | Drenica Skënderaj | Kosovo Superliga | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Drenica Skënderaj | Ballkani | Kosovo Superliga | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Ballkani | Drenica Skënderaj | Kosovo Superliga | 3-0 |
| 2023-12-06 | Drenica Skënderaj | Ballkani | Cup | 0-2 |
| 2023-04-16 | Drenica Skënderaj | Ballkani | Superliga | 0-1 |
| 2023-02-19 | Ballkani | Drenica Skënderaj | Superliga | 2-1 |
| 2022-10-16 | Drenica Skënderaj | Ballkani | Superliga | 1-1 |
| 2022-08-21 | Ballkani | Drenica Skënderaj | Superliga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ballkani vs Drenica Skënderaj odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.2%, draw 25.2%, away 16.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.54 | 3.56 | 5.59 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 3.55 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.56 | 3.65 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.52 | 3.56 | 5.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .