Peru Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 6
Deportivo Garcilaso
vs
Cusco
4 – 1 Full time
Deportivo Garcilaso
38%
Draw
30%
Cusco
32%
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cusco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cusco
| Probability | Deportivo Garcilaso | Draw | Cusco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.8% | 26.0% | 15.1% |
| Market | 31.4% | 31.1% | 37.4% |
| Final | 38.3% | 29.9% | 31.9% |
| Edge | +27.4% | -5.1% | -22.3% |
Why Deportivo Garcilaso
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.75.
- The market prices Deportivo Garcilaso below the model: +27.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
71%
3+ goals
44%
No goals
10%
Deportivo Garcilaso and Cusco expected goals
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.68
Cusco
0.75
Total expected goals: 2.43
Deportivo Garcilaso and Cusco attack and defence ratings
Deportivo Garcilaso
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
0.59 -41%
Cusco
Attack
1.23 +23%
Defence
1.05 +5%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cusco: result vs prediction
Deportivo Garcilaso 4 – 1 Cusco
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 6 fixtures
- FC Cajamarca vs Atletico Grau — team news & stats
- Alianza Atletico vs Sporting Cristal
- Sport Huancayo v UCV Moquegua — match page
- UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos — team news & stats
- Juan Pablo II College vs ADT
- Sport Boys vs Cienciano — team news & stats
- FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima
- Universitario v Club Deportivo Los Chankas — match page
Before and after this match
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cusco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 38.3% | 2.61 | +27.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.3% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 38.3% |
| Draw | 29.9% | |
| Cusco | 31.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.9% |
| No | 56.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Garcilaso win | 33.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.2% | |
| Loss | 41.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.7% |
| 2-0 | 12.5% | |
| 1-1 | 12.1% |
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cusco stats
Deportivo Garcilaso and Cusco recent form
| Deportivo Garcilaso |
DWWWLW |
| Cusco |
WLWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportivo Garcilaso and Cusco going into this match
Deportivo Garcilaso record
- They have won 12 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cusco record
- They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cusco head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
0Deportivo Garcilaso wins
0Draws
3Cusco wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Cusco | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Cusco | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División | 4-0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Cusco | Peru Primera División | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cusco odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.7%, draw 31.1%, away 37.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.56 | 2.96 | 2.94 |
| 1xBet | 3.06 | 2.84 | 2.53 |
| 888Sport | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.88 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.35 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.20 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 2.92 | 2.45 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.15 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 3.04 | 2.84 | 2.51 |
| Pinnacle | 3.10 | 2.80 | 2.51 |
| SBO | 2.72 | 2.95 | 2.25 |
| Superbet | 2.95 | 3.00 | 2.45 |
| Unibet | 2.65 | 3.05 | 2.63 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 2.88 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.95 ▲ +0.12
X
2.98 —
2
2.48 ▼ -0.05
2 snapshots recorded, from .