Alianza Lima
vs
Deportivo Garcilaso
0 – 1 Full time
Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso
| Probability | Alianza Lima | Draw | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.8% | 31.9% | 23.4% |
| Market | 68.5% | 21.5% | 10.0% |
| Final | 62.6% | 24.1% | 13.3% |
| Edge | -23.7% | +10.4% | +13.4% |
Why Alianza Lima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.24 vs 0.83.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alianza Lima and Deportivo Garcilaso expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.07
Alianza Lima and Deportivo Garcilaso attack and defence ratings
Alianza Lima
Deportivo Garcilaso
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso: result vs prediction
Alianza Lima 0 – 1 Deportivo Garcilaso
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
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Before and after this match
Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Lima | 62.6% | 1.60 | -23.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.7% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Lima | 62.6% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 13.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.4% |
| No | 58.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Lima win | 20.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 55.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.4% |
| 1-1 | 14.3% | |
| 0-0 | 13.8% |
Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso stats
Alianza Lima and Deportivo Garcilaso recent form
| Alianza Lima |
DWDWDW |
| Deportivo Garcilaso |
WDWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alianza Lima and Deportivo Garcilaso going into this match
Alianza Lima record
- They have won 15 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Deportivo Garcilaso record
- They have won 12 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Alianza Lima | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División | 3-4 |
| 2025-04-15 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 68.5%, draw 21.5%, away 10.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.35 | 4.30 | 10.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.40 | 3.96 | 9.35 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 4.50 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.34 | 4.25 | 9.25 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 4.33 | 8.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.38 | 4.60 | 9.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.39 | 3.96 | 9.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.39 | 3.77 | 11.08 |
| SBO | 1.31 | 4.00 | 6.66 |
| Unibet | 1.41 | 4.50 | 8.00 |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 4.50 | 8.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .