Peru Primera División · 2026-08-30T16:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Clausura - 7

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico

1 – 4 Full time

12′			José Ingratti
20′			Bryan Angulo
24′			J. Molina
33′			Diego Ramírez
46′			D. RamirezN. Chavez
49′			Román Suárez
51′			Ariel Muñoz
56′			J. Lujan
59′			R. ChipaoY. Lopez
59′			J. IngrattiG. A. Larios Saavedra
61′			C. Penilla
68′			Yorman Zapata
76′			A. MunozJ. Perez
76′			C. PenillaJ. del Castillo
81′			E. MontenegroJ. Jimenez
81′			Bryan AnguloA. Davila
83′			H. LupuF. Flores
83′			J. MolinaV. Robaldo
90′			J. del Castillo

Estadio 25 de Noviembre, MoqueguaReferee: Edwin Ordonez, Peru

UCV Moquegua

41%

Draw

30%

Alianza Atletico

28%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

9	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	6
53	Possession %	47
5	Corners	4
12	Fouls	14
1	Offsides	2
2	Saves	2
281	Accurate passes	241

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico overview

Garuda Lions analysis: UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	UCV Moquegua	Draw	Alianza Atletico
Model	49.2%	30.0%	20.7%
Market	38.9%	30.2%	31.0%
Final	41.5%	30.1%	28.4%
Edge	+10.4%	-0.1%	-10.3%

Confidence: Low

Why UCV Moquegua

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.82.
The market prices UCV Moquegua below the model: +10.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

88%

2+ goals

66%

3+ goals

38%

No goals

12%

UCV Moquegua and Alianza Atletico expected goals

UCV Moquegua

1.38

Alianza Atletico

0.82

Total expected goals: 2.20

UCV Moquegua and Alianza Atletico attack and defence ratings

UCV Moquegua

Attack

0.77 -23%

Defence

0.76 -24%

Alianza Atletico

Attack

1.03 +3%

Defence

1.10 +10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico: result vs prediction

UCV Moquegua 1 – 4 Alianza Atletico

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 7 fixtures

Peru Primera División

Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca — team news & stats · 2026-08-28
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Juan Pablo II College · 2026-08-29
UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario — team news & stats · 2026-08-29
Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 2026-08-30
ADT vs Sport Huancayo — team news & stats · 2026-08-30
Sport Boys v Sporting Cristal — match page · 2026-08-30
Cienciano vs Cusco · 2026-08-31
Atletico Grau v FBC Melgar — match page · 2026-09-01

Before and after this match

UCV Moquegua, previous: Sport Huancayo v UCV Moquegua analysis
UCV Moquegua, next: Cusco – UCV Moquegua, 2026-09-05
Alianza Atletico, previous: Alianza Atletico – Sporting Cristal, 2026-08-21
Alianza Atletico, next: Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca: odds and pick

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	UCV Moquegua	41.5%	2.41	+10.4%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	62.2%	1.61	—	—
Both teams to score	No	57.0%	1.75	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	71.6%	1.40	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	51.2%	1.95	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	UCV Moquegua	41.5%
	Draw	30.1%
	Alianza Atletico	28.4%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	37.8%
	Under 2.5	62.2%
Both teams to score	Yes	43.0%
	No	57.0%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	71.6%
	12 (either side)	69.9%
	X2 (draw or away)	58.5%
Handicap -1	UCV Moquegua win	24.3%
	Push (exactly one goal)	24.5%
	Loss	51.2%
Correct score (top 3)	1-0	14.1%
	1-1	13.7%
	0-0	12.3%

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico stats

UCV Moquegua and Alianza Atletico recent form

newest first

UCV Moquegua	WDLDDD
Alianza Atletico	WDWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

UCV Moquegua and Alianza Atletico going into this match

league record before kick-off

UCV Moquegua record

They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 24 matches.
They have failed to score in 10 of 24 matches.
They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).

Alianza Atletico record

They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0UCV Moquegua wins 0Draws 1Alianza Atletico wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-03-15	Alianza Atletico	UCV Moquegua	Peru Primera División	3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.9%, draw 30.2%, away 31.0%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.34	3.15	3.05
1xBet	2.41	3.08	3.00
Bet365	2.40	3.00	3.00
Betano	2.32	3.10	2.95
Betfair	2.20	3.10	2.90
Dafabet	2.46	3.15	3.05
Marathonbet	2.39	3.08	2.98
Pinnacle	2.41	3.07	2.97
SBO	2.25	2.89	2.62
Unibet	2.23	3.30	3.25
William Hill	2.40	2.90	3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.39 ▼ -0.01

X 3.08 ▼ -0.02

2 3.00 ▲ +0.03

10 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-24T08:10:02Z.