Comerciantes Unidos
vs
FC Cajamarca
2 – 3 Full time
Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca
| Probability | Comerciantes Unidos | Draw | FC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.6% | 20.9% | 17.5% |
| Market | 58.4% | 24.8% | 16.8% |
| Final | 59.2% | 23.8% | 17.0% |
| Edge | +3.2% | -3.9% | +0.7% |
Why Comerciantes Unidos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Comerciantes Unidos below the model: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Comerciantes Unidos and FC Cajamarca expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.46
Comerciantes Unidos and FC Cajamarca attack and defence ratings
Comerciantes Unidos
FC Cajamarca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca: result vs prediction
Comerciantes Unidos 2 – 3 FC Cajamarca
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
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Before and after this match
Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Comerciantes Unidos | 59.2% | 1.69 | +3.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Comerciantes Unidos win | 40.2% | 2.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Comerciantes Unidos | 59.2% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| FC Cajamarca | 17.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% |
| No | 37.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Comerciantes Unidos win | 40.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 38.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 9.3% | |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca stats
Comerciantes Unidos and FC Cajamarca recent form
| Comerciantes Unidos |
WLWLDD |
| FC Cajamarca |
LLWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Comerciantes Unidos and FC Cajamarca going into this match
Comerciantes Unidos record
- They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Cajamarca record
- They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).
Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | FC Cajamarca | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División | 3-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.4%, draw 24.8%, away 16.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.57 | 3.80 | 5.90 |
| 1xBet | 1.61 | 3.70 | 5.49 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 3.75 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.59 | 3.70 | 5.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 3.72 | 5.41 |
| SBO | 1.50 | 3.49 | 4.70 |
| Superbet | 1.58 | 3.85 | 5.25 |
| Unibet | 1.65 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.50 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .