Peru Primera División · 2026-09-01T20:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Clausura - 7

Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar

1 – 0 Full time

24′			A. de la CruzI. Tapia
38′			L. AcevedoF. Oncoy
43′			Juan Escobar
46′			A. FernandezR. Ruidiaz
59′			Mauro Da Luz
62′			C. BordacaharJ. Caceres
66′			P. de la CruzP. Lavandeira Hernandez
66′			M. Da LuzA. Vasquez
69′			D. Barreto
71′			K. MindaH. Orzan
71′			N. CabanillasM. Zegarra
72′			N. QuagliataF. Zanelatto
80′			M. LazoL. Guzman

Estadio Miguel Grau, PiuraReferee: Rudy Mendez, Peru

Atletico Grau

34%

Draw

31%

FBC Melgar

35%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

8	Shots	22
2	Shots on target	9
40	Possession %	60
0	Corners	4
12	Fouls	5
0	Offsides	2
9	Saves	1
283	Accurate passes	474

Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Atletico Grau	Draw	FBC Melgar
Model	39.9%	31.4%	28.7%
Market	32.7%	30.7%	36.6%
Final	34.5%	30.9%	34.6%
Edge	+7.2%	+0.7%	-7.9%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

88%

2+ goals

66%

3+ goals

38%

No goals

12%

Atletico Grau and FBC Melgar expected goals

Atletico Grau

1.22

FBC Melgar

1.00

Total expected goals: 2.22

Atletico Grau and FBC Melgar attack and defence ratings

Atletico Grau

Attack

0.86 -14%

Defence

0.73 -27%

FBC Melgar

Attack

1.30 +30%

Defence

0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar: result vs prediction

Atletico Grau 1 – 0 FBC Melgar

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 7 fixtures

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Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 2026-08-30
UCV Moquegua v Alianza Atletico — match page · 2026-08-30
ADT vs Sport Huancayo — team news & stats · 2026-08-30
Sport Boys v Sporting Cristal — match page · 2026-08-30
Cienciano vs Cusco · 2026-08-31

Before and after this match

Atletico Grau, previous: FC Cajamarca vs Atletico Grau prediction
Atletico Grau, next: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau prediction
FBC Melgar, previous: FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima: odds and pick
FBC Melgar, next: FBC Melgar v ADT analysis

Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	FBC Melgar	34.6%	2.89	-7.9%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	61.8%	1.62	—	—
Both teams to score	No	54.2%	1.85	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	69.1%	1.45	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	71.3%	1.40	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Atletico Grau	34.5%
	Draw	30.9%
	FBC Melgar	34.6%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	38.2%
	Under 2.5	61.8%
Both teams to score	Yes	45.8%
	No	54.2%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	65.4%
	12 (either side)	69.1%
	X2 (draw or away)	65.5%
Handicap -1	FBC Melgar win	11.1%
	Push (exactly one goal)	17.6%
	Loss	71.3%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	14.6%
	0-0	12.2%
	1-0	12.0%

Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar stats

Atletico Grau and FBC Melgar recent form

newest first

Atletico Grau	WWDLLW
FBC Melgar	DWLDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico Grau and FBC Melgar going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Grau record

They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
They have kept 9 clean sheets in 24 matches.
They have failed to score in 12 of 24 matches.
They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).

FBC Melgar record

They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

2Atletico Grau wins 4Draws 3FBC Melgar wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-03-15	FBC Melgar	Atletico Grau	Peru Primera División	0-0
2025-10-05	Atletico Grau	FBC Melgar	Peru Primera División	0-0
2025-05-18	FBC Melgar	Atletico Grau	Peru Primera División	1-1
2024-09-24	FBC Melgar	Atletico Grau	Primera División	0-0
2024-04-21	Atletico Grau	FBC Melgar	Primera División	1-2
2023-07-07	FBC Melgar	Atletico Grau	Primera División	3-0
2023-02-04	Atletico Grau	FBC Melgar	Primera División	3-0
2022-10-24	Atletico Grau	FBC Melgar	Primera División	2-1
2022-06-25	FBC Melgar	Atletico Grau	Primera División	1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.7%, draw 30.7%, away 36.6%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.82	3.15	2.52
1xBet	2.89	2.94	2.54
Bet365	2.80	3.10	2.40
BetVictor	2.80	3.13	2.45
Betano	2.80	3.00	2.50
Betfair	2.75	3.00	2.45
Dafabet	2.90	3.15	2.60
Marathonbet	2.89	2.94	2.54
Pinnacle	2.99	2.89	2.52
SBO	2.65	2.90	2.32
Superbet	2.82	3.00	2.52
Unibet	2.90	3.10	2.55
William Hill	2.90	2.80	2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.82 ▲ +0.15

X 3.00 ▼ -0.10

2 2.52 ▼ -0.10

15 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-24T08:10:02Z.