Peru Primera División · 2026-09-06T23:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Clausura - 8

FBC Melgar vs ADT

3 – 0 Full time

45′			B. Cuesta
63′			B. Cuesta
68′			B. CuestaJ. D'Arrigo
73′			J. RojasS. Peralta
73′			J. BaumanH. Rengifo
73′			J. LucumiA. Mazzo
75′			N. CabanillasJesus Alcantar
75′			C. BordacaharF. Zanelatto
75′			N. QuagliataM. Portillo
82′			Jesus Alcantar
83′			J. J. Canela TorresJ. Garcilazo
83′			H. BenincasaJ. Reyes
84′			K. MindaL. Guzman
86′			L. Gonzalez
87′			M. Rondelli
89′			H. Rengifo

Estadio de la UNSA, ArequipaReferee: Robin Segura, Peru

FBC Melgar

71%

Draw

19%

ADT

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

22	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	2
59	Possession %	41
8	Corners	2
9	Fouls	3
3	Offsides	0
2	Saves	5
428	Accurate passes	280

FBC Melgar vs ADT overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FBC Melgar vs ADT

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	FBC Melgar	Draw	ADT
Model	75.5%	16.5%	8.0%
Market	70.2%	20.1%	9.8%
Final	71.5%	19.2%	9.4%
Edge	+5.3%	-3.6%	-1.7%

Confidence: Low

Why FBC Melgar

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 0.74.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
The market prices FBC Melgar below the model: +5.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

95%

2+ goals

84%

3+ goals

63%

No goals

FBC Melgar and ADT expected goals

FBC Melgar

2.53

ADT

0.74

Total expected goals: 3.27

FBC Melgar and ADT attack and defence ratings

FBC Melgar

Attack

1.18 +18%

Defence

0.84 -16%

ADT

Attack

0.83 -17%

Defence

1.32 +32%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FBC Melgar vs ADT: result vs prediction

FBC Melgar 3 – 0 ADT

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 8 fixtures

Peru Primera División

FC Cajamarca vs Cienciano — team news & stats · 2026-09-04
Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca · 2026-09-04
Sport Huancayo v Sport Boys — match page · 2026-09-05
Cusco vs UCV Moquegua — team news & stats · 2026-09-05
Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos · 2026-09-06
Sporting Cristal v Club Deportivo Los Chankas — match page · 2026-09-06
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau — team news & stats · 2026-09-06
Juan Pablo II College vs Alianza Lima · 2026-09-06

Before and after this match

FBC Melgar, previous: Atletico Grau – FBC Melgar, 2026-09-01
FBC Melgar, next: Cusco vs FBC Melgar prediction
ADT, previous: ADT vs Sport Huancayo: odds and pick
ADT, next: Alianza Lima – ADT, 2026-09-19

FBC Melgar vs ADT markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	FBC Melgar	71.5%	1.40	+5.3%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63.4%	1.58	—	—
Both teams to score	No	51.2%	1.95	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	90.6%	1.10	—	—
Handicap -1	FBC Melgar win	54.4%	1.84	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	FBC Melgar	71.5%
	Draw	19.2%
	ADT	9.4%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63.4%
	Under 2.5	36.6%
Both teams to score	Yes	48.8%
	No	51.2%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	90.6%
	12 (either side)	80.8%
	X2 (draw or away)	28.5%
Handicap -1	FBC Melgar win	54.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.2%
	Loss	24.4%
Correct score (top 3)	2-0	12.2%
	3-0	10.3%
	2-1	9.0%

FBC Melgar vs ADT stats

FBC Melgar and ADT recent form

newest first

FBC Melgar	LDWLDW
ADT	LLDDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FBC Melgar and ADT going into this match

league record before kick-off

FBC Melgar record

They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

ADT record

They have won 5 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FBC Melgar vs ADT head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

4FBC Melgar wins 5Draws 0ADT wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-03-20	ADT	FBC Melgar	Peru Primera División	1-1
2025-08-24	ADT	FBC Melgar	Peru Primera División	2-2
2025-04-05	FBC Melgar	ADT	Peru Primera División	4-0
2024-08-16	ADT	FBC Melgar	Primera División	1-1
2024-03-09	FBC Melgar	ADT	Primera División	3-1
2023-06-22	FBC Melgar	ADT	Primera División	4-0
2023-03-26	ADT	FBC Melgar	Primera División	0-0
2022-10-05	ADT	FBC Melgar	Primera División	1-1
2022-05-13	FBC Melgar	ADT	Primera División	3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FBC Melgar vs ADT odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 68.5%, draw 20.0%, away 11.5%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	1.40	4.70	7.00
1xBet	1.34	4.40	10.00
Bet365	1.30	5.00	8.00
BetVictor	1.29	5.00	9.00
Betano	1.42	4.20	6.70
Betfair	1.30	4.60	7.50
Dafabet	1.42	4.60	7.80
Marathonbet	1.33	4.40	10.00
Pinnacle	1.35	4.32	9.85
SBO	1.36	3.93	5.61
Superbet	1.40	4.40	7.00
Unibet	1.34	4.80	8.00
William Hill	1.30	4.80	9.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.31 ▼ -0.05

X 4.60 ▲ +0.05

2 9.43 ▲ +1.43

11 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-01T16:10:02Z.