Garuda Lions
Today
Peru Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 9

Cusco vs FBC Melgar

0 – 1 Full time

32′Ricardo Lagos
38′Aldair Fuentes
38′Juan Escobar
50′Bernardo Cuesta
61′Johnny Vidales
62′Marcos PortilloHoracio Orzan
62′Nicolas QuagliataMatias Zegarra
62′Lucas ColittoMiguel Silveira
63′Nicolás SilvaJosé Manzaneda
73′Diego SotoJuan Manuel Tévez
73′Ricardo LagosMarlon Ruidías
76′Johnny VidalesLautaro Guzmán
76′Nelson CabanillasJesús Alcantar
83′Jean MontanoOswaldo Valenzuela
84′Bernardo CuestaAlec Deneumostier
86′Oswaldo Valenzuela

Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, CuscoReferee: Jordi Espinoza, Peru

Cusco 42%
Draw 28%
FBC Melgar 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 19
2 Shots on target 7
59 Possession % 41
9 Corners 5
9 Fouls 6
0 Offsides 1
6 Saves 2
401 Accurate passes 266

Cusco vs FBC Melgar overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Cusco vs FBC Melgar

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCuscoDrawFBC Melgar
Model39.5%26.9%33.6%
Market42.5%28.2%29.4%
Final41.7%27.8%30.4%
Edge-2.9%-1.3%+4.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Cusco

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Cusco ↓ / FBC Melgar → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 6% 1 7% 13% 8% 2 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 7%

Cusco and FBC Melgar expected goals

Cusco 1.53
FBC Melgar 1.40

Total expected goals: 2.93

Cusco and FBC Melgar attack and defence ratings

Cusco

Attack 1.23 +23%
Defence 1.06 +6%

FBC Melgar

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Cusco vs FBC Melgar: result vs prediction

Cusco 0 – 1 FBC Melgar

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 9 fixtures

Peru Primera División

Before and after this match

Cusco vs FBC Melgar markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Cusco 41.7% 2.40 -2.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.0% 1.79 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.1% 1.66 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.2% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 60.6% 1.65 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Cusco41.7%
Draw27.8%
FBC Melgar30.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.0%
Under 2.544.0%
Both teams to scoreYes60.1%
No39.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.6%
12 (either side)72.2%
X2 (draw or away)58.3%
Handicap -1Cusco win19.9%
Push (exactly one goal)19.5%
Loss60.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.6%
2-18.8%
1-28.0%

Cusco vs FBC Melgar stats

Cusco and FBC Melgar recent form

newest first
Cusco WWLWLW
FBC Melgar WLDWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Cusco and FBC Melgar going into this match

league record before kick-off

Cusco record

  • They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).

FBC Melgar record

  • They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cusco vs FBC Melgar head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

4Cusco wins 3Draws 2FBC Melgar wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-04FBC MelgarCuscoPeru Primera División1-3
2025-07-27FBC MelgarCuscoPeru Primera División0-2
2025-02-14CuscoFBC MelgarPeru Primera División0-1
2024-07-14CuscoFBC MelgarPrimera División0-3
2024-01-27FBC MelgarCuscoPrimera División2-3
2023-08-19CuscoFBC MelgarPrimera División1-1
2023-04-01FBC MelgarCuscoPrimera División1-1
2021-08-04FBC MelgarCuscoPrimera División2-2
2020-10-23CuscoFBC MelgarPrimera División3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Cusco vs FBC Melgar odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.2%, draw 27.9%, away 29.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.22 3.35 3.10
1xBet 2.19 3.28 3.22
888Sport 2.20 3.10 3.10
Bet365 2.20 3.40 3.10
BetVictor 2.15 3.40 3.10
Betano 2.20 3.20 3.05
Betfair 2.10 3.40 3.10
Dafabet 2.26 3.45 3.15
Marathonbet 2.17 3.28 3.20
Pinnacle 2.16 3.29 3.21
SBO 2.08 3.04 2.78
Superbet 2.20 3.35 3.05
Unibet 2.10 3.50 3.35
William Hill 2.20 3.10 3.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.18 ▼ -0.02
X 3.29 ▼ -0.05
2 3.15 ▲ +0.05

10 snapshots recorded, from .