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Peru Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 9

Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico

3 – 1 Full time

23′Cristian Penilla
40′Ariel Muñoz
45′José María Ingratti
45′Aldair Vásquez
53′Ignacio Tapia
58′Mauro Da LuzDiego Barreto
59′Aldair VásquezAdrián Fernández
62′Paulo De La Cruz
66′Anthony GordilloJorge del Castillo
72′Gabriel AlfaroElsar Rodas
72′Pablo LavandeiraLuis Benites
73′Cristian PenillaGuillermo Larios
74′Ariel MuñozJimmy Perez
82′Paulo De La CruzEslyn Imanol Correa Vilela
82′Germán DíazFranchesco Flores
82′Jairo MolinaValentin Robaldo
90′Hernan Lupu
90′Luis Benites
90′Luis Benites

Ambrosio Maco Arroyo, PiuraReferee: Edwin Ordonez, Peru

Atletico Grau 41%
Draw 29%
Alianza Atletico 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 3
56 Possession % 44
6 Corners 2
19 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 1
2 Saves 2
291 Accurate passes 235

Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtletico GrauDrawAlianza Atletico
Model47.1%26.7%26.1%
Market39.3%29.4%31.2%
Final41.3%28.8%30.0%
Edge+7.8%-2.7%-5.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Atletico Grau

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.17.
  • The market prices Atletico Grau below the model: +7.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atletico Grau ↓ / Alianza Atleti → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 9% 13% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

Atletico Grau and Alianza Atletico expected goals

Atletico Grau 1.64
Alianza Atletico 1.17

Total expected goals: 2.82

Atletico Grau and Alianza Atletico attack and defence ratings

Atletico Grau

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Alianza Atletico

Attack 1.29 +29%
Defence 1.10 +10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico: result vs prediction

Atletico Grau 3 – 1 Alianza Atletico

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 9 fixtures

Peru Primera División

Before and after this match

Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Grau 41.3% 2.42 +7.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.4% 1.87 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.8% 1.76 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.2% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.9% 1.89 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atletico Grau41.3%
Draw28.8%
Alianza Atletico30.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.4%
Under 2.546.6%
Both teams to scoreYes56.8%
No43.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.0%
12 (either side)71.2%
X2 (draw or away)58.7%
Handicap -1Atletico Grau win25.4%
Push (exactly one goal)21.7%
Loss52.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.7%
2-19.5%
1-08.7%

Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico stats

Atletico Grau and Alianza Atletico recent form

newest first
Atletico Grau LWWWDL
Alianza Atletico WWWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico Grau and Alianza Atletico going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Grau record

  • They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).

Alianza Atletico record

  • They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Atletico Grau wins 5Draws 4Alianza Atletico wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-03Alianza AtleticoAtletico GrauPeru Primera División2-2
2025-11-02Atletico GrauAlianza AtleticoPeru Primera División1-1
2025-06-29Alianza AtleticoAtletico GrauPeru Primera División2-1
2024-07-14Alianza AtleticoAtletico GrauPrimera División0-0
2024-01-28Atletico GrauAlianza AtleticoPrimera División1-1
2023-10-08Atletico GrauAlianza AtleticoPrimera División1-1
2023-05-27Alianza AtleticoAtletico GrauPrimera División3-2
2022-10-09Alianza AtleticoAtletico GrauPrimera División4-1
2022-05-22Atletico GrauAlianza AtleticoPrimera División1-2
2019-10-06Atletico GrauAlianza AtleticoSegunda División3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.2%, draw 28.9%, away 30.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.12 3.30 3.40
1xBet 2.34 3.28 2.94
888Sport 2.10 3.10 3.30
Bet365 2.50 3.00 2.88
BetVictor 2.30 3.20 3.00
Betano 2.52 3.00 2.77
Betfair 2.20 3.25 2.80
Dafabet 2.15 3.30 3.50
Marathonbet 2.32 3.28 2.92
Pinnacle 2.36 3.08 3.04
SBO 1.99 2.98 3.02
Unibet 1.98 3.30 4.00
William Hill 2.30 3.10 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.32 ▲ +0.22
X 3.10 ▼ -0.11
2 2.92 ▼ -0.46

13 snapshots recorded, from .