Peru Primera División · 2026-09-23T20:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Clausura - 9

ADT vs Cienciano

2 – 1 Full time

21′			Orlando Nunez
39′			Santiago Arias
40′			Aldair Rodríguez
44′			Kevin Becerra
45′			Gerson Barreto
53′			Jonathan BaumanJhojan Garcilazo
54′			Angel OjedaJair Reyes
57′			Claudio Nuñez
60′			Horacio Benincasa
67′			John Narváez
72′			Santiago AriasMatias Succar
80′			Marcos MartinichSebastian Cavero
83′			Neri BandieraRay Sandoval
86′			Joao RojasOmar Vidal Ramírez Lozano
88′			Sebastian Cavero
90′			John Narváez
90′			Aldair RodríguezJerry Navarro
90′			Juan lucumiJosé Rugel

Estadio Union Tarma, TarmaReferee: Junior Rivera

ADT

28%

Draw

26%

Cienciano

45%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

14	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	2
46	Possession %	54
4	Corners	7
9	Fouls	19
2	Offsides	1
1	Saves	3
224	Accurate passes	275

ADT vs Cienciano overview

Garuda Lions analysis: ADT vs Cienciano

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	ADT	Draw	Cienciano
Model	24.5%	24.7%	50.9%
Market	29.4%	27.0%	43.7%
Final	28.1%	26.4%	45.5%
Edge	-4.9%	-2.3%	+7.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Cienciano

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.25.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
The market prices Cienciano below the model: +7.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

95%

2+ goals

83%

3+ goals

60%

No goals

ADT and Cienciano expected goals

ADT

1.25

Cienciano

1.87

Total expected goals: 3.11

ADT and Cienciano attack and defence ratings

ADT

Attack

0.69 -31%

Defence

1.40 +40%

Cienciano

Attack

1.26 +26%

Defence

1.10 +10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

ADT vs Cienciano: result vs prediction

ADT 2 – 1 Cienciano

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 9 fixtures

Peru Primera División

UTC Cajamarca vs Juan Pablo II College — team news & stats · 2026-09-11
Cusco vs FBC Melgar · 2026-09-12
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs FC Cajamarca — team news & stats · 2026-09-12
Comerciantes Unidos v Sport Huancayo — match page · 2026-09-12
Alianza Lima vs Universitario — team news & stats · 2026-09-13
UCV Moquegua v Sporting Cristal — match page · 2026-09-13
Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 2026-09-13
Atletico Grau v Alianza Atletico — match page · 2026-09-13

Before and after this match

ADT, previous: Alianza Lima – ADT, 2026-09-19
ADT, next: ADT vs FC Cajamarca: odds and pick
Cienciano, previous: Cienciano vs Atletico Torque prediction
Cienciano, next: Cienciano – Club Deportivo Los Chankas, 2026-09-30

ADT vs Cienciano markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Cienciano	45.5%	2.20	+7.2%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	60.1%	1.66	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	61.2%	1.63	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	73.6%	1.36	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	49.1%	2.03	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	ADT	28.1%
	Draw	26.4%
	Cienciano	45.5%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	60.1%
	Under 2.5	39.9%
Both teams to score	Yes	61.2%
	No	38.8%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	54.5%
	12 (either side)	73.6%
	X2 (draw or away)	71.9%
Handicap -1	Cienciano win	29.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.5%
	Loss	49.1%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	11.4%
	1-2	9.7%
	0-2	7.7%

ADT vs Cienciano stats

ADT and Cienciano recent form

newest first

ADT	LLLLDD
Cienciano	WLWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

ADT and Cienciano going into this match

league record before kick-off

ADT record

They have won 5 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cienciano record

They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).

ADT vs Cienciano head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3ADT wins 4Draws 3Cienciano wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-07-10	Cienciano	ADT	Copa De La Liga	2-3
2026-04-03	Cienciano	ADT	Peru Primera División	3-2
2025-07-19	ADT	Cienciano	Peru Primera División	1-0
2025-03-05	ADT	Cienciano	CONMEBOL Sudamericana	1-1
2025-02-09	Cienciano	ADT	Peru Primera División	2-2
2024-07-21	Cienciano	ADT	Primera División	0-1
2024-02-03	ADT	Cienciano	Primera División	1-1
2023-09-20	Cienciano	ADT	Primera División	2-2
2023-04-30	ADT	Cienciano	Primera División	3-4
2022-07-24	ADT	Cienciano	Primera División	0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

ADT vs Cienciano odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.4%, draw 26.9%, away 43.6%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	3.12	3.35	2.17
Bet365	3.10	3.40	2.10
BetVictor	3.13	3.50	2.10
Betano	3.15	3.40	2.10
Betfair	2.88	3.40	2.10
Dafabet	2.37	3.40	3.00
Marathonbet	3.10	3.35	2.15
Pinnacle	3.23	3.46	2.09
SBO	2.75	3.11	2.15
William Hill	3.20	3.25	2.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.12 ▲ +0.87

X 3.40 ▲ +0.05

2 2.10 ▼ -0.77

24 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-08T08:10:02Z.