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Peru Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 9

Alianza Lima vs Universitario

1 – 2 Full time

16′Alex Valera
26′Pablo Adrián Guede Barriero
45′Matías Di Benedetto
51′Alessandro BurlamaquiAlan Martín Cantero
58′Mateo Antoni PavonGianfranco Chavez
64′Federico Girotti
70′Gianluca LapadulaLisandro Alzugaray
72′Jorge MurrugarraHoracio Calcaterra
77′Piero QuispeHéctor Fertoli
77′Federico Girotti
84′Horacio Calcaterra
89′Renzo Garces
90′Erick CastilloLuis Ramos
90′Lisandro Alzugaray
90′Lisandro Alzugaray

Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, LimaReferee: Micke Palomino, Peru

Alianza Lima 42%
Draw 31%
Universitario 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

22 Shots 9
2 Shots on target 6
65 Possession % 35
8 Corners 3
11 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 0
5 Saves 1
346 Accurate passes 151

Alianza Lima vs Universitario overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza Lima vs Universitario

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAlianza LimaDrawUniversitario
Model52.1%27.4%20.5%
Market39.2%32.7%28.0%
Final42.5%31.4%26.1%
Edge+12.8%-5.4%-7.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Alianza Lima

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.93.
  • The market prices Alianza Lima below the model: +12.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Alianza Lima ↓ / Universitario → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 12% 13% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 46%
No goals 9%

Alianza Lima and Universitario expected goals

Alianza Lima 1.60
Universitario 0.93

Total expected goals: 2.52

Alianza Lima and Universitario attack and defence ratings

Alianza Lima

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Universitario

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Alianza Lima vs Universitario: result vs prediction

Alianza Lima 1 – 2 Universitario

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 9 fixtures

Peru Primera División

Before and after this match

Alianza Lima vs Universitario markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Alianza Lima 42.5% 2.36 +12.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 53.8% 1.86 — —
Both teams to score No 50.7% 1.97 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 73.9% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.0% 2.08 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Alianza Lima42.5%
Draw31.4%
Universitario26.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546.2%
Under 2.553.8%
Both teams to scoreYes49.3%
No50.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.9%
12 (either side)68.6%
X2 (draw or away)57.5%
Handicap -1Alianza Lima win28.2%
Push (exactly one goal)23.7%
Loss48.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.0%
1-011.7%
2-010.3%

Alianza Lima vs Universitario stats

Alianza Lima and Universitario recent form

newest first
Alianza Lima DLDWDW
Universitario DWWWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Alianza Lima and Universitario going into this match

league record before kick-off

Alianza Lima record

  • They have won 15 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Universitario record

  • They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Alianza Lima vs Universitario head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Alianza Lima wins 4Draws 5Universitario wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-05UniversitarioAlianza LimaPeru Primera División1-0
2025-08-24UniversitarioAlianza LimaPeru Primera División0-0
2025-04-06Alianza LimaUniversitarioPeru Primera División1-1
2024-07-27UniversitarioAlianza LimaPrimera División2-1
2024-02-11Alianza LimaUniversitarioPrimera División0-1
2023-11-09Alianza LimaUniversitarioPrimera División0-2
2023-11-05UniversitarioAlianza LimaPrimera División1-1
2023-07-23Alianza LimaUniversitarioPrimera División0-0
2023-02-19UniversitarioAlianza LimaPrimera División1-2
2022-09-04Alianza LimaUniversitarioPrimera División0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Alianza Lima vs Universitario odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.2%, draw 31.9%, away 26.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.99 3.10 4.10
1xBet 2.34 2.76 3.52
888Sport 2.00 3.00 3.75
Bet365 2.38 2.90 3.30
BetVictor 2.30 3.00 3.20
Betano 2.40 2.85 3.15
Betfair 2.20 2.90 3.10
Dafabet 2.06 3.15 4.00
Marathonbet 2.32 2.76 3.50
Pinnacle 2.31 2.66 3.38
SBO 2.17 2.78 3.04
Superbet 2.02 3.10 3.85
Unibet 1.90 3.30 4.35
William Hill 2.40 2.75 3.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.32 ▲ +0.33
X 2.78 ▼ -0.18
2 3.25 ▼ -1.05

12 snapshots recorded, from .