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Peru Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 8

Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos

2 – 2 Full time

18′Fabio Rojas
21′Matías Eric Sen
25′Juan Manuel Requena
44′Jhon Sanchez
46′J. RequenaJ. Murrugarra
46′A. QuirozP. A. Quispe Cordova
50′C. Inga
53′F. Alcedo
62′Gianluca Lapadula
66′Jhon SanchezP. Guzman
66′A. AriasA. Rodriguez
77′C. FaraL. Alzugaray
83′G. Lapadula
84′R. VilcaJ. Herrera
88′Jorge Murrugarra
90′J. ParodiP. Fuentes
90′M. SenE. M. Perez Azambuya

Estadio Monumental, LimaReferee: Michael Espinoza, Peru

Universitario 68%
Draw 20%
Comerciantes Unidos 12%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 8
5 Shots on target 5
53 Possession % 47
7 Corners 3
17 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 2
3 Saves 3
389 Accurate passes 338

Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUniversitarioDrawComerciantes Unidos
Model65.5%20.6%13.9%
Market69.4%19.7%10.9%
Final68.4%20.0%11.6%
Edge-3.9%+0.9%+3.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Universitario

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.95.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Universitario ↓ / Comerciantes U → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 10% 2 10% 10% 3 8% 7% 4+ 7% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Universitario and Comerciantes Unidos expected goals

Universitario 2.24
Comerciantes Unidos 0.95

Total expected goals: 3.19

Universitario and Comerciantes Unidos attack and defence ratings

Universitario

Attack 1.26 +26%
Defence 0.84 -16%

Comerciantes Unidos

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.10 +10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos: result vs prediction

Universitario 2 – 2 Comerciantes Unidos

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 8 fixtures

Peru Primera División

Before and after this match

Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Universitario 68.4% 1.46 -3.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.9% 1.62 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.9% 1.79 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 88.4% 1.13 — —
Handicap -1 Universitario win 43.2% 2.31 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Universitario68.4%
Draw20.0%
Comerciantes Unidos11.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.9%
Under 2.538.1%
Both teams to scoreYes55.9%
No44.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)88.4%
12 (either side)80.0%
X2 (draw or away)31.6%
Handicap -1Universitario win43.2%
Push (exactly one goal)22.3%
Loss34.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-010.3%
2-19.8%
1-19.7%

Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos stats

Universitario and Comerciantes Unidos recent form

newest first
Universitario WWWDLW
Comerciantes Unidos LWLWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Universitario and Comerciantes Unidos going into this match

league record before kick-off

Universitario record

  • They have won 13 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Comerciantes Unidos record

  • They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Universitario wins 3Draws 0Comerciantes Unidos wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-21Comerciantes UnidosUniversitarioPeru Primera División0-0
2025-07-19UniversitarioComerciantes UnidosPeru Primera División3-1
2025-02-09Comerciantes UnidosUniversitarioPeru Primera División1-1
2024-09-29Comerciantes UnidosUniversitarioPrimera División0-2
2024-04-29UniversitarioComerciantes UnidosPrimera División6-0
2018-11-25UniversitarioComerciantes UnidosPrimera División2-0
2018-08-26Comerciantes UnidosUniversitarioPrimera División3-4
2018-04-15UniversitarioComerciantes UnidosPrimera División1-0
2018-02-28Comerciantes UnidosUniversitarioPrimera División0-2
2017-11-05Comerciantes UnidosUniversitarioPrimera División1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 70.3%, draw 19.3%, away 10.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.28 4.85 12.00
1xBet 1.33 4.75 9.00
Bet365 1.36 4.50 8.00
BetVictor 1.33 4.60 8.50
Betano 1.29 4.80 9.25
Betfair 1.22 5.00 10.50
Dafabet 1.30 5.40 10.00
Marathonbet 1.32 4.75 9.00
Pinnacle 1.32 4.90 8.48
SBO 1.25 4.43 7.24
Superbet 1.28 5.10 8.70
Unibet 1.33 5.00 9.50
William Hill 1.35 4.50 8.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.33 ▲ +0.04
X 4.67 ▼ -0.23
2 8.50 ▼ -1.25

12 snapshots recorded, from .