Peru Primera División · 2026-09-05T23:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Clausura - 8

Cusco vs UCV Moquegua

2 – 0 Full time

12′			F. Callejo
46′			A. LecarosA. Davila
60′			D. SotoC. Diez
60′			N. SilvaJ. Manzaneda
68′			C. MejiaY. Lopez
68′			E. LastreJ. Collazos
69′			L. ColittoJ. Tevez
78′			C. RamirezN. Chavez
80′			I. ColmanMiguel Silveira
80′			F. CallejoHerrera Joel
82′			Aldair Perleche
82′			Cristian Enciso
83′			R. Lagos
90′			Bryan AnguloE. M. Santillan Vargas

Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, CuscoReferee: Micke Palomino, Peru

Cusco

69%

Draw

20%

UCV Moquegua

11%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

27	Shots	11
12	Shots on target	2
66	Possession %	34
5	Corners	2
10	Fouls	6
1	Saves	11
539	Accurate passes	247

Cusco vs UCV Moquegua overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Cusco vs UCV Moquegua

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Cusco	Draw	UCV Moquegua
Model	59.1%	23.8%	17.1%
Market	72.2%	18.5%	9.3%
Final	68.9%	19.8%	11.3%
Edge	-13.0%	+5.3%	+7.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Cusco

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.95.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

93%

2+ goals

79%

3+ goals

55%

No goals

Cusco and UCV Moquegua expected goals

Cusco

1.92

UCV Moquegua

0.95

Total expected goals: 2.87

Cusco and UCV Moquegua attack and defence ratings

Cusco

Attack

1.21 +21%

Defence

1.19 +19%

UCV Moquegua

Attack

0.76 -24%

Defence

0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Cusco vs UCV Moquegua: result vs prediction

Cusco 2 – 0 UCV Moquegua

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 8 fixtures

Peru Primera División

FC Cajamarca vs Cienciano — team news & stats · 2026-09-04
Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca · 2026-09-04
Sport Huancayo v Sport Boys — match page · 2026-09-05
Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos · 2026-09-06
Sporting Cristal v Club Deportivo Los Chankas — match page · 2026-09-06
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau — team news & stats · 2026-09-06
Juan Pablo II College vs Alianza Lima · 2026-09-06
FBC Melgar v ADT — match page · 2026-09-06

Before and after this match

Cusco, previous: Cienciano vs Cusco prediction
Cusco, next: Cusco vs FBC Melgar prediction
UCV Moquegua, previous: UCV Moquegua v Alianza Atletico analysis
UCV Moquegua, next: UCV Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal prediction

Cusco vs UCV Moquegua markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Cusco	68.9%	1.45	-13.0%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54.8%	1.83	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	53.4%	1.87	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	88.7%	1.13	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	40.9%	2.45	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Cusco	68.9%
	Draw	19.8%
	UCV Moquegua	11.3%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54.8%
	Under 2.5	45.2%
Both teams to score	Yes	53.4%
	No	46.6%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	88.7%
	12 (either side)	80.2%
	X2 (draw or away)	31.1%
Handicap -1	Cusco win	35.8%
	Push (exactly one goal)	23.3%
	Loss	40.9%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	11.4%
	2-0	10.5%
	2-1	9.9%

Cusco vs UCV Moquegua stats

Cusco and UCV Moquegua recent form

newest first

Cusco	WLWLWL
UCV Moquegua	LWDLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Cusco and UCV Moquegua going into this match

league record before kick-off

Cusco record

They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).

UCV Moquegua record

They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 24 matches.
They have failed to score in 10 of 24 matches.
They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).

Cusco vs UCV Moquegua head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

1Cusco wins 0Draws 0UCV Moquegua wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-03-21	UCV Moquegua	Cusco	Peru Primera División	1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Cusco vs UCV Moquegua odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 72.2%, draw 18.3%, away 9.5%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	1.30	5.10	9.60
1xBet	1.28	5.10	10.50
Bet365	1.30	4.75	10.00
BetVictor	1.29	5.00	9.50
Betano	1.31	4.75	8.75
Betfair	1.22	5.00	10.50
Dafabet	1.31	5.40	9.80
Marathonbet	1.27	5.10	10.50
Pinnacle	1.30	5.24	8.80
SBO	1.25	4.48	7.14
Superbet	1.29	5.10	8.50
Unibet	1.29	5.50	10.00
William Hill	1.30	4.75	10.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.29 ▲ +0.04

X 5.05 ▲ +0.05

2 10.00 —

12 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-31T08:10:02Z.