Peru Primera División · 2026-09-13T15:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Clausura - 9

UCV Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal

1 – 2 Full time

6′			Santiago González
21′			R. Chipao
35′			Miguel Araujo
42′			Cristiano
45′			Luis Iberico
45′			Juan Diego Lojas
45′			Cristian Mejía
45′			Brayan AnguloJeferson Collazos
45′			Allonso Alberto Dávila CárdenasNicolas Chavez
51′			Cristian Enciso
59′			Santiago González
62′			Michael HoyosIrven Avila
73′			Luis IbericoGabriel
77′			Juan Diego LojasDiego Ramírez
83′			Maxloren CastroLeonardo Diaz Laffore
83′			Agustín ÁlvarezMartín Távara
83′			Leandro SosaJuan Gonzalez
83′			R. ChipaoClaudio Ramírez
83′			Yorman ZapataY. López
90′			Irven Avila

Estadio 25 de Noviembre, MoqueguaReferee: Julio Cesar Quiroz, Peru

UCV Moquegua

25%

Draw

27%

Sporting Cristal

48%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

21	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	2
54	Possession %	46
10	Corners	4
13	Fouls	17
1	Offsides	3
0	Saves	5
276	Accurate passes	276

UCV Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal overview

Garuda Lions analysis: UCV Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	UCV Moquegua	Draw	Sporting Cristal
Model	27.1%	30.4%	42.5%
Market	24.3%	26.4%	49.3%
Final	25.0%	27.4%	47.6%
Edge	+2.8%	+4.0%	-6.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Sporting Cristal

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 1.00.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

89%

2+ goals

69%

3+ goals

41%

No goals

11%

UCV Moquegua and Sporting Cristal expected goals

UCV Moquegua

1.00

Sporting Cristal

1.32

Total expected goals: 2.32

UCV Moquegua and Sporting Cristal attack and defence ratings

UCV Moquegua

Attack

0.66 -34%

Defence

1.05 +5%

Sporting Cristal

Attack

1.20 +20%

Defence

0.93 -7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

UCV Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal: result vs prediction

UCV Moquegua 1 – 2 Sporting Cristal

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 9 fixtures

Peru Primera División

UTC Cajamarca vs Juan Pablo II College — team news & stats · 2026-09-11
Cusco vs FBC Melgar · 2026-09-12
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs FC Cajamarca — team news & stats · 2026-09-12
Comerciantes Unidos v Sport Huancayo — match page · 2026-09-12
Alianza Lima vs Universitario — team news & stats · 2026-09-13
Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 2026-09-13
Atletico Grau v Alianza Atletico — match page · 2026-09-13
ADT vs Cienciano · 2026-09-23

Before and after this match

UCV Moquegua, previous: Cusco – UCV Moquegua, 2026-09-05
UCV Moquegua, next: Juan Pablo II College vs UCV Moquegua: odds and pick
Sporting Cristal, previous: Sporting Cristal vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas: odds and pick
Sporting Cristal, next: Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau prediction

UCV Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Sporting Cristal	47.6%	2.10	-6.8%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	59.2%	1.69	—	—
Both teams to score	No	52.4%	1.91	—	—
Double chance	X2 (draw or away)	75.0%	1.33	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	57.3%	1.75	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	UCV Moquegua	25.0%
	Draw	27.4%
	Sporting Cristal	47.6%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	40.8%
	Under 2.5	59.2%
Both teams to score	Yes	47.6%
	No	52.4%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	52.4%
	12 (either side)	72.6%
	X2 (draw or away)	75.0%
Handicap -1	Sporting Cristal win	20.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	22.4%
	Loss	57.3%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	14.3%
	0-1	11.7%
	0-0	11.2%

UCV Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal stats

UCV Moquegua and Sporting Cristal recent form

newest first

UCV Moquegua	LLWDLD
Sporting Cristal	WLLWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

UCV Moquegua and Sporting Cristal going into this match

league record before kick-off

UCV Moquegua record

They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
They have failed to score in 11 of 25 matches.
They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).

Sporting Cristal record

They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

UCV Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

1UCV Moquegua wins 0Draws 0Sporting Cristal wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-03	Sporting Cristal	UCV Moquegua	Peru Primera División	1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

UCV Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 23.4%, draw 26.3%, away 50.3%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	4.60	3.80	1.70
1xBet	3.92	3.52	1.87
888Sport	4.60	3.50	1.70
Bet365	3.75	3.50	1.90
BetVictor	3.80	3.50	1.87
Betano	4.10	3.95	1.90
Betfair	3.75	3.60	1.80
Dafabet	4.80	3.90	1.71
Marathonbet	3.86	3.50	1.87
Pinnacle	3.95	3.45	1.87
SBO	3.47	3.30	1.80
Superbet	4.50	3.75	1.68
Unibet	4.75	3.80	1.70
William Hill	3.80	3.30	1.91

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.80 ▼ -0.32

X 3.50 ▼ -0.14

2 1.87 ▲ +0.08

12 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-07T08:10:02Z.