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Peru Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 10

Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau

3 – 1 Full time

3′Rafael Lutiger
26′Luis Iberico
39′Rafael Guarderas
45′Adrián Fernández
45′Diego BarretoMauro Da Luz
50′Freddy Oncoy
50′Cristiano
50′Michael Hoyos
54′Gabriel Alfaro
66′Adrián Fernández
69′Pablo LavandeiraLuis Benites
69′Adrián FernándezEslyn Imanol Correa Vilela
69′Aldair VásquezRaúl Ruidíaz
77′Luis IbericoGabriel
77′CristianoLuis Abram
78′Freddy OncoyChristian Vasquez
83′Agustín ÁlvarezMartín Távara
84′Santiago GonzálezJuan Manuel Cuesta
87′Michael HoyosIrven Avila
90′Luis Abram

Estadio Alberto Gallardo, LimaReferee: Mike Palomino

Sporting Cristal 63%
Draw 22%
Atletico Grau 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 10
11 Shots on target 5
53 Possession % 47
9 Corners 5
10 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 4
4 Saves 8
343 Accurate passes 300

Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySporting CristalDrawAtletico Grau
Model54.5%26.1%19.4%
Market66.3%20.4%13.2%
Final63.4%21.9%14.8%
Edge-11.8%+5.6%+6.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Sporting Cristal

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 0.94.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sporting Crist ↓ / Atletico Grau → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 11% 12% 2 10% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Sporting Cristal and Atletico Grau expected goals

Sporting Cristal 1.72
Atletico Grau 0.94

Total expected goals: 2.66

Sporting Cristal and Atletico Grau attack and defence ratings

Sporting Cristal

Attack 1.23 +23%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Atletico Grau

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau: result vs prediction

Sporting Cristal 3 – 1 Atletico Grau

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 10 fixtures

Peru Primera División

Before and after this match

Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sporting Cristal 63.4% 1.58 -11.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.4% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.1% 1.96 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.2% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.5% 2.20 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sporting Cristal63.4%
Draw21.9%
Atletico Grau14.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%
Both teams to scoreYes51.1%
No48.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.2%
12 (either side)78.1%
X2 (draw or away)36.6%
Handicap -1Sporting Cristal win30.8%
Push (exactly one goal)23.6%
Loss45.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.5%
1-010.9%
2-010.3%

Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau stats

Sporting Cristal and Atletico Grau recent form

newest first
Sporting Cristal WWLLWD
Atletico Grau WLWWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sporting Cristal and Atletico Grau going into this match

league record before kick-off

Sporting Cristal record

  • They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Atletico Grau record

  • They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).

Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Sporting Cristal wins 1Draws 2Atletico Grau wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-22Atletico GrauSporting CristalPeru Primera División4-1
2025-11-19Atletico GrauSporting CristalPeru Primera División1-2
2025-07-13Sporting CristalAtletico GrauPeru Primera División2-1
2024-08-11Atletico GrauSporting CristalPrimera División1-1
2024-03-02Sporting CristalAtletico GrauPrimera División1-0
2023-08-17Atletico GrauSporting CristalPrimera División2-3
2023-03-19Sporting CristalAtletico GrauPrimera División2-1
2022-10-20Sporting CristalAtletico GrauPrimera División1-2
2022-06-19Atletico GrauSporting CristalPrimera División0-2
2020-11-04Atletico GrauSporting CristalPrimera División1-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 66.5%, draw 20.3%, away 13.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.39 4.55 7.17
Bet365 1.44 4.20 7.00
BetVictor 1.36 4.60 7.50
Betano 1.47 4.70 7.50
Betfair 1.33 4.60 7.00
Marathonbet 1.39 4.50 6.90
Pinnacle 1.40 4.60 6.97
SBO 1.34 4.00 5.90
William Hill 1.40 4.20 6.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.40 ▲ +0.02
X 4.53 ▲ +0.19
2 6.98 ▼ -1.02

13 snapshots recorded, from .