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Peru Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 10

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario

4 – 0 Full time

6′Héctor Aldair Salazar
10′Pablo Labrin
18′Jorge Murrugarra
19′Agustin Gonzalez
32′Piero Quispe
45′Piero QuispeAdrian Quiroz
58′Facundo Castelli
60′Lisandro AlzugarayGianluca Lapadula
66′Gianluca Lapadula
69′Jairo ConchaJordan Guivin
69′César IngaJorge Gutiérrez
76′Facundo CastelliFernando Pacheco
79′Alex ValeraBryan Reyna
81′Francisco ArancibiaChristopher Olivares
81′Beto Da SilvaAdrian Ascues
89′Carlos RamosJosé Anthony Rosell
89′Pablo LabrinL. Ríos
90′Héctor Aldair Salazar

Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, CuscoReferee: Jordi Espinoza

Deportivo Garcilaso 44%
Draw 29%
Universitario 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 10
12 Shots on target 2
46 Possession % 54
4 Corners 4
13 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 2
2 Saves 8
375 Accurate passes 443

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDeportivo GarcilasoDrawUniversitario
Model57.2%26.2%16.7%
Market39.9%29.8%30.3%
Final44.2%28.9%26.9%
Edge+17.3%-3.7%-13.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Deportivo Garcilaso

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.81.
  • The market prices Deportivo Garcilaso below the model: +17.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Deportivo Garc ↓ / Universitario → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 13% 12% 2 12% 10% 3 7% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 46%
No goals 9%

Deportivo Garcilaso and Universitario expected goals

Deportivo Garcilaso 1.69
Universitario 0.81

Total expected goals: 2.50

Deportivo Garcilaso and Universitario attack and defence ratings

Deportivo Garcilaso

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 0.61 -39%

Universitario

Attack 1.26 +26%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario: result vs prediction

Deportivo Garcilaso 4 – 0 Universitario

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 10 fixtures

Peru Primera División

Before and after this match

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Deportivo Garcilaso 44.2% 2.26 +17.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.3% 1.84 — —
Both teams to score No 53.5% 1.87 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 73.1% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.9% 2.33 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Deportivo Garcilaso44.2%
Draw28.9%
Universitario26.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545.7%
Under 2.554.3%
Both teams to scoreYes46.5%
No53.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.1%
12 (either side)71.1%
X2 (draw or away)55.8%
Handicap -1Deportivo Garcilaso win32.5%
Push (exactly one goal)24.7%
Loss42.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-012.7%
1-112.4%
2-011.7%

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario stats

Deportivo Garcilaso and Universitario recent form

newest first
Deportivo Garcilaso LWWWDW
Universitario WDWWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Deportivo Garcilaso and Universitario going into this match

league record before kick-off

Deportivo Garcilaso record

  • They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Universitario record

  • They have won 14 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

0Deportivo Garcilaso wins 4Draws 3Universitario wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-23UniversitarioDeportivo GarcilasoPeru Primera División4-1
2025-11-08UniversitarioDeportivo GarcilasoPeru Primera División0-0
2025-07-06Deportivo GarcilasoUniversitarioPeru Primera División0-1
2024-08-17UniversitarioDeportivo GarcilasoPrimera División3-1
2024-03-09Deportivo GarcilasoUniversitarioPrimera División2-2
2023-08-20UniversitarioDeportivo GarcilasoPrimera División1-1
2023-04-01Deportivo GarcilasoUniversitarioPrimera División0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.6%, draw 29.8%, away 31.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.31 3.08 3.10
Bet365 2.45 3.25 2.75
BetVictor 2.30 3.13 3.00
Betano 2.65 3.05 2.60
Betfair 2.55 3.10 2.55
Marathonbet 2.30 3.08 3.06
Pinnacle 2.28 3.07 3.18
SBO 2.46 2.84 2.42
William Hill 2.38 3.00 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.30 ▼ -0.24
X 3.08 ▼ -0.03
2 3.03 ▲ +0.33

13 snapshots recorded, from .