Universitario
vs
FBC Melgar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Universitario
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Universitario vs FBC Melgar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Universitario vs FBC Melgar
| Probability | Universitario | Draw | FBC Melgar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.7% | 28.3% | 36.0% |
| Market | 51.2% | 28.3% | 20.5% |
| Final | 47.3% | 28.3% | 24.4% |
| Edge | -15.5% | -0.0% | +15.5% |
Why Universitario
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Universitario vs FBC Melgar match preview
Universitario faces FBC Melgar in a matchup where the probabilities suggest a strong chance for a home victory, with Universitario at 47%, a draw at 28%, and FBC Melgar at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Universitario, with an overall expectation of 50% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score. The expected goals are closely matched, with Universitario at 1.34 and FBC Melgar at 1.35.
In terms of recent form, Universitario has recorded a sequence of results with their latest matches showing L-W-D-W-W-W, while FBC Melgar's recent performance includes D-W-W-L-D-W. The head-to-head record over the last three encounters favors Universitario, who have secured 2 wins compared to FBC Melgar's 1 win. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Universitario and FBC Melgar expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.69
Universitario and FBC Melgar attack and defence ratings
Universitario
FBC Melgar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
- UCV Moquegua v Cienciano — match page
- Atletico Grau vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sport Huancayo
- ADT vs FC Cajamarca — team news & stats
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II College — team news & stats
- UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats
- Sport Boys v Alianza Atletico — match page
- Cusco v Alianza Lima — match page
Before and after this match
Universitario vs FBC Melgar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitario | 47.3% | 2.11 | -15.5% | 1.87 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.3% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitario | 47.3% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| FBC Melgar | 24.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.0% |
| No | 44.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Universitario win | 16.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 64.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
Universitario vs FBC Melgar stats
Universitario and FBC Melgar recent form
| Universitario |
LWDWWW |
| FBC Melgar |
DWWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Universitario and FBC Melgar season so far
Universitario record
- They have won 14 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FBC Melgar record
- They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Universitario vs FBC Melgar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | FBC Melgar | Universitario | Peru Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | FBC Melgar | Universitario | Peru Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-14 | Universitario | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Universitario vs FBC Melgar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.2%, draw 28.3%, away 20.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.80 | 3.08 | 5.01 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.20 | 4.65 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.87 | 3.35 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.78 | 3.08 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 2.88 | 5.62 |
| SBO | 1.81 | 3.01 | 3.54 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
22 snapshots recorded, from .