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Peru Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 11

Universitario vs FBC Melgar

2 – 2 Full time

16′Caín Fara
20′Juan Escobar
39′Bernardo Cuesta
45′Jorge MurrugarraPiero Quispe
56′Cristian Bordacahar
61′Walter Tandazo
66′Gianluca LapadulaLisandro Alzugaray
67′Caín FaraEdison Flores
69′Bernardo CuestaMatias Zegarra
70′Lautaro GuzmánJohnny Vidales
77′Nelson CabanillasJesús Alcantar
82′Jairo ConchaJosé Rivera
84′Alex Valera
86′Matias Zegarra
86′Alex Valera
90′Horacio CalcaterraJuan Manuel Requena

Estadio Monumental U Marathon, LimaReferee: Roberto Perez Gutierrez

Universitario 47%
Draw 29%
FBC Melgar 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 6
46 Possession % 54
9 Corners 3
13 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 1
4 Saves 2
320 Accurate passes 418

Universitario vs FBC Melgar overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Universitario vs FBC Melgar

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUniversitarioDrawFBC Melgar
Model35.6%28.3%36.1%
Market51.0%29.8%19.3%
Final47.1%29.4%23.5%
Edge-3.8%-0.4%+4.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Universitario

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Universitario ↓ / FBC Melgar → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 8% 1 8% 13% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Universitario and FBC Melgar expected goals

Universitario 1.34
FBC Melgar 1.36

Total expected goals: 2.70

Universitario and FBC Melgar attack and defence ratings

Universitario

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 1.10 +10%

FBC Melgar

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Universitario vs FBC Melgar: result vs prediction

Universitario 2 – 2 FBC Melgar

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 11 fixtures

Peru Primera División

Before and after this match

Universitario vs FBC Melgar markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Universitario 47.1% 2.12 -3.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.5% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.0% 1.78 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.5% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 64.4% 1.55 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Universitario47.1%
Draw29.4%
FBC Melgar23.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.5%
Under 2.549.5%
Both teams to scoreYes56.0%
No44.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.5%
12 (either side)70.6%
X2 (draw or away)52.9%
Handicap -1Universitario win16.6%
Push (exactly one goal)19.0%
Loss64.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.5%
1-28.3%
2-18.2%

Universitario vs FBC Melgar stats

Universitario and FBC Melgar recent form

newest first
Universitario LWDWWW
FBC Melgar DWWLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Universitario and FBC Melgar going into this match

league record before kick-off

Universitario record

  • They have won 14 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FBC Melgar record

  • They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Universitario vs FBC Melgar head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Universitario wins 1Draws 3FBC Melgar wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-19FBC MelgarUniversitarioPeru Primera División2-1
2026-01-20UniversitarioFBC MelgarFriendlies Clubs3-2
2025-09-14FBC MelgarUniversitarioPeru Primera División1-2
2025-04-14UniversitarioFBC MelgarPeru Primera División4-1
2024-08-01FBC MelgarUniversitarioPrimera División1-0
2024-02-18UniversitarioFBC MelgarPrimera División2-0
2023-08-06FBC MelgarUniversitarioPrimera División0-1
2023-03-05UniversitarioFBC MelgarPrimera División1-0
2022-10-16UniversitarioFBC MelgarPrimera División1-1
2022-05-29FBC MelgarUniversitarioPrimera División2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Universitario vs FBC Melgar odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 51.0%, draw 29.8%, away 19.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.81 3.08 4.96
Bet365 1.80 2.88 5.00
BetVictor 1.80 3.40 4.20
Betano 1.75 3.45 6.00
Betfair 1.80 3.10 4.40
Dafabet 1.90 3.25 4.60
Marathonbet 1.79 3.08 4.95
Pinnacle 1.83 2.88 5.46
SBO 1.82 3.08 3.63
William Hill 1.83 3.30 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.81 ▲ +0.08
X 3.09 ▼ -0.42
2 4.78 ▲ +0.28

24 snapshots recorded, from .