FBC Melgar
vs
Deportivo Garcilaso
Garuda Lions Prediction: FBC Melgar
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso
| Probability | FBC Melgar | Draw | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.6% | 31.5% | 31.0% |
| Market | 67.8% | 19.6% | 12.6% |
| Final | 60.2% | 22.6% | 17.2% |
| Edge | -30.2% | +11.9% | +18.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso match preview
FBC Melgar faces Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peru Primera División with a predicted probability of 38% for a Melgar victory, while both a draw and a Garcilaso win sit at 31%. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 1-0 in favor of Melgar, with an 11% chance. Expected goals are calculated at 1.18 for Melgar and 1.05 for Garcilaso, indicating a closely contested match.
In terms of recent form, FBC Melgar has recorded two draws, two wins, and one loss in their last five matches, while Deportivo Garcilaso has been in strong form with four wins and one loss. The head-to-head record shows Melgar has not won in their last three encounters, with Garcilaso winning twice and one match ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FBC Melgar and Deportivo Garcilaso expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.23
FBC Melgar and Deportivo Garcilaso attack and defence ratings
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FBC Melgar | 60.2% | 1.66 | -30.2% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.6% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.8% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FBC Melgar | 60.2% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 17.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.4% |
| No | 53.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | FBC Melgar win | 16.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 62.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 12.1% | |
| 1-0 | 11.4% |
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso stats
FBC Melgar and Deportivo Garcilaso recent form
| FBC Melgar |
DDWWLD |
| Deportivo Garcilaso |
LWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FBC Melgar and Deportivo Garcilaso season so far
FBC Melgar record
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Garcilaso record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | Deportivo Garcilaso | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Deportivo Garcilaso | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-18 | FBC Melgar | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-03 | FBC Melgar | Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2024-05-25 | Deportivo Garcilaso | FBC Melgar | Primera División | 1-3 |
| 2023-07-01 | Deportivo Garcilaso | FBC Melgar | Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2023-05-15 | FBC Melgar | Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División | 2-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.3%, draw 21.4%, away 15.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.36 | 4.80 | 7.37 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.60 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.75 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.35 | 4.80 | 7.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.35 | 4.93 | 7.58 |
| SBO | 1.54 | 3.52 | 4.31 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.50 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .