Deportivo Garcilaso
vs
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo Garcilaso
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 0.75.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
| Probability | Deportivo Garcilaso | Draw | Club Deportivo Los Chankas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77.9% | 14.9% | 7.2% |
| Market | 64.1% | 21.3% | 14.5% |
| Final | 67.6% | 19.7% | 12.7% |
| Edge | +3.4% | -1.6% | -1.8% |
Why Deportivo Garcilaso
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Deportivo Garcilaso below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.0% per unit staked (our 67.6% × 1.48 − 1).
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas match preview
Deportivo Garcilaso enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 78%, while Club Deportivo Los Chankas has a mere 7% chance. The expected goals for Deportivo Garcilaso stand at 2.71, significantly higher than Los Chankas' 0.75, indicating a dominant offensive performance anticipated from the home side. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-0, occurring with a 12% probability.
In terms of recent form, Deportivo Garcilaso has recorded two wins in their last five matches, while Club Deportivo Los Chankas has struggled, with only one win in their last six games. The head-to-head record shows Deportivo Garcilaso with two wins and one draw against Los Chankas in their last three encounters, further highlighting the home team's advantage.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportivo Garcilaso and Club Deportivo Los Chankas expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.46
Deportivo Garcilaso and Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack and defence ratings
Deportivo Garcilaso
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar — team news & stats
- Atletico Grau v ADT — match page
- Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico — team news & stats
- Cusco vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats
- Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano
- UCV Moquegua v Alianza Lima — match page
- Sport Boys v FC Cajamarca — match page
Before and after this match
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 67.6% | 1.48 | +3.4% | 1.48 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.1% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.3% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Garcilaso win | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 67.6% |
| Draw | 19.7% | |
| Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 12.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.9% |
| No | 50.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Garcilaso win | 57.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 22.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.6% |
| 3-0 | 10.4% | |
| 2-1 | 8.7% |
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas stats
Deportivo Garcilaso and Club Deportivo Los Chankas recent form
| Deportivo Garcilaso |
LLWLWW |
| Club Deportivo Los Chankas |
WDDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportivo Garcilaso and Club Deportivo Los Chankas season so far
Deportivo Garcilaso record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas record
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-19 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Peru Primera División | 3-0 |
| 2025-02-10 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.0%, draw 21.3%, away 14.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.43 | 4.45 | 6.43 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.33 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.15 | 5.80 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 4.50 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.42 | 4.45 | 6.35 |
| Pinnacle | 1.46 | 4.32 | 6.18 |
| SBO | 1.39 | 3.83 | 5.32 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .