Comerciantes Unidos
vs
Cienciano
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cienciano
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cienciano is the favourite, not a value bet.
Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano
| Probability | Comerciantes Unidos | Draw | Cienciano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.5% | 26.1% | 37.4% |
| Market | 29.9% | 26.9% | 43.2% |
| Final | 31.6% | 26.7% | 41.7% |
| Edge | +1.6% | -0.2% | -1.4% |
Why Cienciano
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.8% per unit staked (our 41.7% × 2.21 − 1).
Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano match preview
Comerciantes Unidos will face Cienciano in the Peru Primera División on October 25, 2026. The match is expected to be competitive, with probabilities indicating Comerciantes Unidos at 32% to win, a draw at 27%, and Cienciano favored at 41%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with expected goals of 1.53 for Comerciantes Unidos and 1.55 for Cienciano.
In terms of recent form, Comerciantes Unidos has struggled, recording a sequence of L-D-L-L-D-L, while Cienciano has shown better performance with W-W-D-L-L-W. The head-to-head record favors Cienciano, who has won twice in their last three encounters, with Comerciantes Unidos yet to secure a victory. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Comerciantes Unidos and Cienciano expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
Comerciantes Unidos and Cienciano attack and defence ratings
Comerciantes Unidos
Cienciano
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cienciano | 41.7% | 2.40 | -1.4% | 2.21 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Comerciantes Unidos | 31.6% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Cienciano | 41.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% |
| No | 37.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cienciano win | 18.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 62.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-1 | 8.3% |
Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano stats
Comerciantes Unidos and Cienciano recent form
| Comerciantes Unidos |
LDLLDL |
| Cienciano |
WWDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Comerciantes Unidos and Cienciano season so far
Comerciantes Unidos record
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cienciano record
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Cienciano | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-08 | Comerciantes Unidos | Cienciano | Peru Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-10 | Cienciano | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.2%, draw 27.1%, away 42.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.12 | 3.35 | 2.17 |
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.35 | 2.12 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.55 | 2.18 |
| Marathonbet | 3.10 | 3.35 | 2.15 |
| Pinnacle | 2.99 | 3.45 | 2.21 |
| SBO | 2.78 | 3.10 | 2.05 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .