Sport Boys
vs
FC Cajamarca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sport Boys
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.91.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sport Boys is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca
| Probability | Sport Boys | Draw | FC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.3% | 25.0% | 17.6% |
| Market | 63.3% | 21.8% | 14.9% |
| Final | 61.8% | 22.6% | 15.6% |
| Edge | -1.5% | +0.8% | +0.7% |
Why Sport Boys
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.91.
Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.3% per unit staked (our 61.8% × 1.50 − 1).
Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca match preview
Sport Boys will face FC Cajamarca in the Peru Primera División on October 25, 2026. According to our model, Sport Boys has a 62% probability of winning, while FC Cajamarca stands at 16%. The expected goals for Sport Boys are 1.81, compared to FC Cajamarca's 0.91, suggesting a potential advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 11%.
In terms of recent form, Sport Boys has recorded two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five matches, while FC Cajamarca has one win, two losses, and two draws. Both teams have a 51% probability of scoring, indicating a balanced offensive capability. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sport Boys and FC Cajamarca expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Sport Boys and FC Cajamarca attack and defence ratings
Sport Boys
FC Cajamarca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar — team news & stats
- Atletico Grau v ADT — match page
- Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico — team news & stats
- Cusco vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats
- Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano
- UCV Moquegua v Alianza Lima — match page
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Before and after this match
Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Boys | 61.8% | 1.62 | -1.5% | 1.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Boys | 61.8% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| FC Cajamarca | 15.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% |
| No | 48.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sport Boys win | 33.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 42.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | |
| 2-0 | 10.8% |
Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca stats
Sport Boys and FC Cajamarca recent form
| Sport Boys |
LLDWLW |
| FC Cajamarca |
LDLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sport Boys and FC Cajamarca season so far
Sport Boys record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Cajamarca record
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).
Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | FC Cajamarca | Sport Boys | Peru Primera División | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.3%, draw 21.8%, away 14.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 4.25 | 6.28 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.20 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.15 | 5.60 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.50 | 4.50 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 4.25 | 6.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.46 | 4.28 | 6.35 |
| SBO | 1.39 | 3.83 | 5.32 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .