Universitario
vs
Juan Pablo II College
Garuda Lions Prediction: Universitario
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.56.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Universitario is the favourite, not a value bet.
Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College
| Probability | Universitario | Draw | Juan Pablo II College |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.4% | 23.6% | 30.0% |
| Market | 68.0% | 19.5% | 12.5% |
| Final | 62.6% | 20.5% | 16.9% |
| Edge | -5.4% | +1.0% | +4.4% |
Why Universitario
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.56.
Best available price on the pick: 1.39, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.0% per unit staked (our 62.6% × 1.39 − 1).
Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College match preview
Universitario enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 63%, while Juan Pablo II College has a lower chance at 17%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Universitario, with an expected goals metric of 1.97 for Universitario and 1.56 for Juan Pablo II College. Both teams have shown solid recent form, with Universitario recording three wins and two draws in their last five matches.
In terms of scoring, our model indicates a 68% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance that both teams will find the back of the net. The recent head-to-head record favors Universitario, who has won two out of the last three encounters, while Juan Pablo II College has one victory. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Universitario and Juan Pablo II College expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.53
Universitario and Juan Pablo II College attack and defence ratings
Universitario
Juan Pablo II College
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Cusco vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano
- UCV Moquegua v Alianza Lima — match page
- Sport Boys v FC Cajamarca — match page
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Before and after this match
Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitario | 62.6% | 1.60 | -5.4% | 1.39 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitario | 62.6% |
| Draw | 20.5% | |
| Juan Pablo II College | 16.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.9% |
| No | 31.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Universitario win | 26.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 53.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.0% |
Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College stats
Universitario and Juan Pablo II College recent form
| Universitario |
WDLWDW |
| Juan Pablo II College |
WDWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Universitario and Juan Pablo II College season so far
Universitario record
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juan Pablo II College record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Juan Pablo II College | Universitario | Peru Primera División | 1-4 |
| 2025-10-05 | Universitario | Juan Pablo II College | Peru Primera División | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-18 | Juan Pablo II College | Universitario | Peru Primera División | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.9%, draw 19.5%, away 12.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.37 | 4.70 | 7.37 |
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.36 | 5.50 | 9.00 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.39 | 5.00 | 7.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.36 | 4.70 | 7.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.36 | 4.96 | 7.20 |
| SBO | 1.31 | 4.22 | 6.09 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.60 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .