Cusco
vs
Sporting Cristal
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cusco
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cusco is the favourite, not a value bet.
Cusco vs Sporting Cristal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cusco vs Sporting Cristal
| Probability | Cusco | Draw | Sporting Cristal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.5% | 25.9% | 40.6% |
| Market | 48.3% | 26.1% | 25.6% |
| Final | 44.6% | 26.1% | 29.4% |
| Edge | -3.7% | -0.1% | +3.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.99, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.3% per unit staked (our 44.6% × 1.99 − 1).
Cusco vs Sporting Cristal match preview
Cusco faces Sporting Cristal in a matchup where the probabilities suggest a competitive encounter, with Cusco at 40%, a draw at 27%, and Sporting Cristal at 33%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Cusco, occurring with an 8% likelihood. Both teams have shown a propensity for scoring, with expected goals of 1.47 for Cusco and 1.63 for Sporting Cristal.
Recent form indicates that Cusco has had a mixed run, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Sporting Cristal has been more consistent, winning four of their last five before a recent loss. The head-to-head record over the last five encounters shows Cusco with 2 wins, Sporting Cristal with 2 wins, and 1 draw, highlighting a balanced rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cusco and Sporting Cristal expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.10
Cusco and Sporting Cristal attack and defence ratings
Cusco
Sporting Cristal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Cusco vs Sporting Cristal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cusco | 44.6% | 2.24 | -3.7% | 1.99 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cusco | 44.6% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Sporting Cristal | 29.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% |
| No | 36.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cusco win | 16.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.3% | |
| Loss | 66.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 7.9% |
Cusco vs Sporting Cristal stats
Cusco and Sporting Cristal recent form
| Cusco |
LLWLWW |
| Sporting Cristal |
WWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cusco and Sporting Cristal season so far
Cusco record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).
Sporting Cristal record
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Cusco vs Sporting Cristal head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Sporting Cristal | Cusco | Peru Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2025-12-14 | Cusco | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Sporting Cristal | Cusco | Peru Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Cusco | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2025-04-13 | Sporting Cristal | Cusco | Peru Primera División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cusco vs Sporting Cristal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.2%, draw 26.1%, away 25.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.48 | 3.58 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.99 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.93 | 3.48 | 3.56 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88 | 3.53 | 3.71 |
| SBO | 1.86 | 3.15 | 3.18 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .