UCV Moquegua
vs
Alianza Lima
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alianza Lima
0 – 1 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.70.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Alianza Lima is the favourite, not a value bet.
UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima overview
Garuda Lions analysis: UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima
| Probability | UCV Moquegua | Draw | Alianza Lima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.3% | 29.8% | 52.9% |
| Market | 16.0% | 24.7% | 59.3% |
| Final | 16.3% | 26.0% | 57.7% |
| Edge | +0.3% | +1.3% | -1.6% |
Why Alianza Lima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.6% per unit staked (our 57.7% × 1.60 − 1).
UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima match preview
UCV Moquegua faces Alianza Lima in the Peru Primera División with a kickoff scheduled for October 25, 2026. The probabilities indicate a strong advantage for Alianza Lima, who have a 57% chance of winning compared to UCV Moquegua's 17%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring with a 16% probability. UCV Moquegua's expected goals stand at 0.70, while Alianza Lima's are at 1.41.
Recent form shows UCV Moquegua struggling with six consecutive losses, while Alianza Lima has recorded three wins in their last six matches, alongside one draw and two losses. In their previous head-to-head encounter, Alianza Lima emerged victorious, adding to their historical dominance over UCV Moquegua, who have yet to secure a win against them.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
UCV Moquegua and Alianza Lima expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.11
UCV Moquegua and Alianza Lima attack and defence ratings
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Lima
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano
- Sport Boys v FC Cajamarca — match page
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Before and after this match
UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Lima | 57.7% | 1.73 | -1.6% | 1.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.7% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UCV Moquegua | 16.3% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Alianza Lima | 57.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.2% |
| No | 60.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 42.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Lima win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 47.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.9% |
| 0-0 | 13.3% | |
| 1-1 | 13.1% |
UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima stats
UCV Moquegua and Alianza Lima recent form
| UCV Moquegua |
WLLLLL |
| Alianza Lima |
WWWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
UCV Moquegua and Alianza Lima season so far
UCV Moquegua record
- They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
Alianza Lima record
- They have won 17 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Alianza Lima | UCV Moquegua | Peru Primera División | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 15.9%, draw 24.6%, away 59.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.94 | 3.74 | 1.55 |
| Bet365 | 5.75 | 3.75 | 1.57 |
| Betano | 5.20 | 3.70 | 1.60 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 3.90 | 1.53 |
| Dafabet | 5.80 | 4.00 | 1.59 |
| Marathonbet | 6.00 | 3.74 | 1.53 |
| Pinnacle | 5.84 | 3.85 | 1.55 |
| SBO | 5.22 | 3.42 | 1.46 |
| William Hill | 5.80 | 3.50 | 1.57 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .