ADT
vs
UCV Moquegua
Garuda Lions Prediction: ADT
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.24 vs 0.74.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
ADT vs UCV Moquegua overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ADT vs UCV Moquegua
| Probability | ADT | Draw | UCV Moquegua |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.8% | 32.3% | 20.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 46.8% | 32.3% | 20.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why ADT
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.24 vs 0.74.
ADT vs UCV Moquegua match preview
ADT faces UCV Moquegua in the Peru Primera División, with a kickoff scheduled for October 28, 2026. According to our model, ADT holds a 46% probability of winning, while a draw is at 32% and UCV Moquegua at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of ADT, with an expected goals tally of 1.24 for ADT and 0.76 for UCV Moquegua.
Recent form shows ADT with a record of L-D-W-L-L-L, while UCV Moquegua has struggled with W-L-L-L-L-L. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 32%, and both teams to score stands at 39%. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ADT and UCV Moquegua expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.98
ADT and UCV Moquegua attack and defence ratings
ADT
UCV Moquegua
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
ADT vs UCV Moquegua markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ADT | 46.8% | 2.14 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ADT | 46.8% |
| Draw | 32.3% | |
| UCV Moquegua | 20.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.3% |
| No | 61.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | ADT win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.0% | |
| Loss | 53.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.9% |
| 0-0 | 15.1% | |
| 1-1 | 13.9% |
ADT vs UCV Moquegua stats
ADT and UCV Moquegua recent form
| ADT |
DLDWLL |
| UCV Moquegua |
WLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ADT and UCV Moquegua season so far
ADT record
- They have won 6 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
UCV Moquegua record
- They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
ADT vs UCV Moquegua head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | UCV Moquegua | ADT | Peru Primera División | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.