Sporting Cristal
vs
Alianza Lima
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sporting Cristal
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.03.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima
| Probability | Sporting Cristal | Draw | Alianza Lima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.4% | 25.7% | 20.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.4% | 25.7% | 20.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Sporting Cristal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima match preview
Sporting Cristal faces Alianza Lima in a match where the probabilities suggest a slight edge for the home side, with Sporting Cristal at 53%, a draw at 26%, and Alianza Lima at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Sporting Cristal, occurring with a 10% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 54%, and there is a 53% chance that the match will feature over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Sporting Cristal has been strong, recording four wins followed by a loss, while Alianza Lima has seen three wins, a loss, and a draw in their last five matches. The expected goals indicate Sporting Cristal at 1.76 and Alianza Lima at 1.03. Historically, in their last five encounters, Sporting Cristal has not secured a win, with four draws and one victory for Alianza Lima.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sporting Cristal and Alianza Lima expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.79
Sporting Cristal and Alianza Lima attack and defence ratings
Sporting Cristal
Alianza Lima
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Universitario vs Sport Boys — team news & stats
- FBC Melgar v Comerciantes Unidos — match page
- Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso — team news & stats
- Cienciano vs Atletico Grau
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Cusco — match page
- ADT vs UCV Moquegua — team news & stats
- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo
- FC Cajamarca v UTC Cajamarca — match page
Before and after this match
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Cristal | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.6% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Cristal | 53.4% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Alianza Lima | 20.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% |
| No | 45.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Cristal win | 30.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 46.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-0 | 9.7% |
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima stats
Sporting Cristal and Alianza Lima recent form
| Sporting Cristal |
WWWWWL |
| Alianza Lima |
WWWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sporting Cristal and Alianza Lima season so far
Sporting Cristal record
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Alianza Lima record
- They have won 17 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Alianza Lima | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Alianza Lima | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División | 3-3 |
| 2025-12-03 | Sporting Cristal | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-06 | Alianza Lima | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-02 | Sporting Cristal | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.