Sporting Cristal
vs
FC Cajamarca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sporting Cristal
3 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.16 vs 1.02.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca
| Probability | Sporting Cristal | Draw | FC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78.6% | 13.2% | 8.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 78.6% | 13.2% | 8.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Sporting Cristal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.16 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca match preview
Sporting Cristal enters the match against FC Cajamarca with a strong probability of winning at 79%, while the visitors have an 8% chance of victory. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 3-1 in favor of Sporting Cristal, with an expected goals total of 3.16 for them compared to just 1.02 for FC Cajamarca. Additionally, there is a 79% chance of more than 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and a 62% likelihood that both teams will find the net.
In terms of recent form, Sporting Cristal has been impressive, winning five of their last six matches, while FC Cajamarca has struggled, recording only one win in their last six. The head-to-head record shows that FC Cajamarca has won their last encounter against Sporting Cristal, which could add an interesting dynamic to this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sporting Cristal and FC Cajamarca expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.18
Sporting Cristal and FC Cajamarca attack and defence ratings
Sporting Cristal
FC Cajamarca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso — team news & stats
- Alianza Lima v Cienciano — match page
- Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar — team news & stats
- Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT
- Alianza Atletico v Juan Pablo II College — match page
- Atletico Grau vs Universitario — team news & stats
- Cusco vs Sport Boys
- UCV Moquegua v Club Deportivo Los Chankas — match page
Before and after this match
Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Cristal | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.8% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Cristal win | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Cristal | 78.6% |
| Draw | 13.2% | |
| FC Cajamarca | 8.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% |
| No | 38.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 21.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Cristal win | 61.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.7% | |
| Loss | 21.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 8.2% |
| 3-0 | 8.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.8% |
Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca stats
Sporting Cristal and FC Cajamarca recent form
| Sporting Cristal |
LWWWWW |
| FC Cajamarca |
LLDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sporting Cristal and FC Cajamarca season so far
Sporting Cristal record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
FC Cajamarca record
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).
Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | FC Cajamarca | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.