ADT
vs
Sporting Cristal
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sporting Cristal
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.26.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
ADT vs Sporting Cristal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ADT vs Sporting Cristal
| Probability | ADT | Draw | Sporting Cristal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.2% | 23.7% | 53.1% |
| Market | 36.1% | 27.7% | 36.1% |
| Final | 32.9% | 26.7% | 40.4% |
| Edge | -3.2% | -1.0% | +4.2% |
Why Sporting Cristal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sporting Cristal below our published probability: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +11.0% per unit staked (our 40.4% × 2.75 − 1).
ADT vs Sporting Cristal match preview
In the upcoming match between ADT and Sporting Cristal in the Peru Primera División, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter. Our model assigns a 27% chance of an ADT victory, a 26% likelihood of a draw, and a 46% probability that Sporting Cristal will win. The expected goals for ADT stand at 1.24, while Sporting Cristal is projected to score 1.66, suggesting a potential scoreline of 1-2, which has a 9% likelihood according to our model.
Recent form shows ADT with a mixed record of W-D-L-D-W-L, while Sporting Cristal has been on a strong run, winning their last six matches. In their last three head-to-head encounters, ADT has secured 1 win, while Sporting Cristal has won 2. The model also indicates a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ADT and Sporting Cristal expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
ADT and Sporting Cristal attack and defence ratings
ADT
Sporting Cristal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
ADT vs Sporting Cristal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Cristal | 40.4% | 2.48 | +4.2% | 2.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ADT | 32.9% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Sporting Cristal | 40.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% |
| No | 37.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Cristal win | 31.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 46.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 7.7% |
ADT vs Sporting Cristal stats
ADT and Sporting Cristal recent form
| ADT |
DWDLDW |
| Sporting Cristal |
WWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ADT and Sporting Cristal season so far
ADT record
- They have won 7 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Cristal record
- They have won 15 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
ADT vs Sporting Cristal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Sporting Cristal | ADT | Copa De La Liga | 5-0 |
| 2026-09-27 | ADT | Sporting Cristal | Copa De La Liga | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Sporting Cristal | ADT | Peru Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-04 | ADT | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2025-05-17 | Sporting Cristal | ADT | Peru Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2024-07-12 | ADT | Sporting Cristal | Primera División | 3-1 |
| 2024-01-27 | Sporting Cristal | ADT | Primera División | 6-2 |
| 2023-08-06 | ADT | Sporting Cristal | Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2023-03-04 | Sporting Cristal | ADT | Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2022-09-29 | Sporting Cristal | ADT | Primera División | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
ADT vs Sporting Cristal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.1%, draw 27.7%, away 36.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.55 | 3.32 | 2.55 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.35 | 2.47 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.55 | 3.32 | 2.55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.63 | 3.34 | 2.56 |
| SBO | 2.27 | 3.04 | 2.50 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .