FBC Melgar
vs
Juan Pablo II College
Garuda Lions Prediction: FBC Melgar
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.10.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FBC Melgar is the favourite, not a value bet.
FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College
| Probability | FBC Melgar | Draw | Juan Pablo II College |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.8% | 27.6% | 25.5% |
| Market | 76.3% | 15.1% | 8.5% |
| Final | 69.0% | 18.3% | 12.8% |
| Edge | -7.4% | +3.1% | +4.2% |
Why FBC Melgar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.10.
Best available price on the pick: 1.23, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.2% per unit staked (our 69.0% × 1.23 − 1).
FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College match preview
FBC Melgar enters this match with a probability of 64% to win, while Juan Pablo II College has a 15% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of FBC Melgar, with an expected goals tally of 1.56 for Melgar and 1.10 for Juan Pablo II College. Recent form shows FBC Melgar with two draws and a win in their last five matches, while Juan Pablo II College has won three of their last five.
Historically, the last three encounters between these teams have resulted in three draws, indicating a competitive matchup. The model suggests a 50% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to score. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FBC Melgar and Juan Pablo II College expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
FBC Melgar and Juan Pablo II College attack and defence ratings
FBC Melgar
Juan Pablo II College
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
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- ADT vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats
- FC Cajamarca v Alianza Atletico — match page
- Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo — team news & stats
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Alianza Lima — match page
- Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos
- Universitario vs UCV Moquegua — team news & stats
Before and after this match
FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FBC Melgar | 69.0% | 1.45 | -7.4% | 1.23 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.2% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FBC Melgar | 69.0% |
| Draw | 18.3% | |
| Juan Pablo II College | 12.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% |
| No | 46.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | FBC Melgar win | 24.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 53.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.7% | |
| 2-1 | 9.4% |
FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College stats
FBC Melgar and Juan Pablo II College recent form
| FBC Melgar |
LDWWDD |
| Juan Pablo II College |
LWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FBC Melgar and Juan Pablo II College season so far
FBC Melgar record
- They have won 15 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juan Pablo II College record
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 10 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Juan Pablo II College | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-05 | FBC Melgar | Juan Pablo II College | Peru Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-02 | Juan Pablo II College | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 76.3%, draw 15.1%, away 8.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.20 | 6.10 | 12.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.17 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.23 | 5.70 | 9.75 |
| Betfair | 1.17 | 6.50 | 10.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.23 | 6.80 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.19 | 6.10 | 12.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.20 | 5.93 | 10.33 |
| SBO | 1.20 | 5.03 | 7.62 |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 5.80 | 12.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .