Alianza Atletico
vs
FBC Melgar
Garuda Lions Prediction: FBC Melgar
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FBC Melgar is the favourite, not a value bet.
Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar
| Probability | Alianza Atletico | Draw | FBC Melgar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.8% | 24.8% | 32.5% |
| Market | 29.3% | 27.3% | 43.4% |
| Final | 32.7% | 26.6% | 40.7% |
| Edge | +3.4% | -0.6% | -2.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.1% per unit staked (our 40.7% × 2.21 − 1).
Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar match preview
Alianza Atletico faces FBC Melgar in a matchup where the probabilities indicate a competitive contest. Alianza Atletico has a 33% chance of winning, while FBC Melgar is favored at 41%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, with an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, as the model suggests a 66% chance for both teams to score and a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Alianza Atletico has recorded two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while FBC Melgar has a more favorable record with four wins, one draw, and one loss. Historically, in their last 10 encounters, Alianza Atletico has secured 2 wins, FBC Melgar has 4 wins, and there have been 4 draws, indicating a balanced rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alianza Atletico and FBC Melgar expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.32
Alianza Atletico and FBC Melgar attack and defence ratings
Alianza Atletico
FBC Melgar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FBC Melgar | 40.7% | 2.46 | -2.7% | 2.21 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Atletico | 32.7% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| FBC Melgar | 40.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.3% |
| No | 33.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | FBC Melgar win | 15.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.6% | |
| Loss | 67.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.6% |
Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar stats
Alianza Atletico and FBC Melgar recent form
| Alianza Atletico |
LWWLLW |
| FBC Melgar |
WLDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alianza Atletico and FBC Melgar season so far
Alianza Atletico record
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FBC Melgar record
- They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | FBC Melgar | Alianza Atletico | Peru Primera División | 3-1 |
| 2025-08-01 | Alianza Atletico | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2025-02-24 | FBC Melgar | Alianza Atletico | Peru Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2024-07-25 | Alianza Atletico | FBC Melgar | Primera División | 3-1 |
| 2024-02-10 | FBC Melgar | Alianza Atletico | Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-15 | FBC Melgar | Alianza Atletico | Primera División | 4-0 |
| 2023-04-24 | Alianza Atletico | FBC Melgar | Primera División | 3-3 |
| 2022-10-30 | FBC Melgar | Alianza Atletico | Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2022-07-03 | Alianza Atletico | FBC Melgar | Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2021-08-13 | Alianza Atletico | FBC Melgar | Primera División | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.3%, draw 27.3%, away 43.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.02 | 3.38 | 2.21 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.35 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.16 |
| Marathonbet | 2.99 | 3.38 | 2.19 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .