Comerciantes Unidos
vs
Sport Boys
Garuda Lions Prediction: Comerciantes Unidos
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 1.20.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Comerciantes Unidos is the favourite, not a value bet.
Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys
| Probability | Comerciantes Unidos | Draw | Sport Boys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.1% | 27.9% | 29.1% |
| Market | 49.3% | 26.2% | 24.6% |
| Final | 47.7% | 26.6% | 25.7% |
| Edge | -1.6% | +0.4% | +1.1% |
Why Comerciantes Unidos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 1.20.
Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (our 47.7% × 1.95 − 1).
Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys match preview
Comerciantes Unidos and Sport Boys are set to clash in the Peru Primera División with Comerciantes Unidos holding a slight edge in the probabilities at 48%, compared to Sport Boys at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 1.51 for Comerciantes Unidos and 1.20 for Sport Boys. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Comerciantes Unidos recording three draws and a win in their last six matches, while Sport Boys have two wins and four draws in the same period.
Historically, the head-to-head record over the last eight encounters shows a competitive matchup, with Comerciantes Unidos securing two wins, Sport Boys three, and three matches ending in draws. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 51%, and there is a 56% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Comerciantes Unidos and Sport Boys expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Comerciantes Unidos and Sport Boys attack and defence ratings
Comerciantes Unidos
Sport Boys
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Alianza Atletico v FBC Melgar — match page
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- UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas — team news & stats
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Before and after this match
Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Comerciantes Unidos | 47.7% | 2.09 | -1.6% | 1.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Comerciantes Unidos | 47.7% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Sport Boys | 25.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% |
| No | 44.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Comerciantes Unidos win | 21.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 56.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-0 | 8.9% |
Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys stats
Comerciantes Unidos and Sport Boys recent form
| Comerciantes Unidos |
DDDWLD |
| Sport Boys |
DDWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Comerciantes Unidos and Sport Boys season so far
Comerciantes Unidos record
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sport Boys record
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Sport Boys | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Sport Boys | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-13 | Comerciantes Unidos | Sport Boys | Peru Primera División | 0-4 |
| 2024-10-24 | Comerciantes Unidos | Sport Boys | Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2024-05-11 | Sport Boys | Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2019-06-29 | Sport Boys | Comerciantes Unidos | Copa Bicentenario | 0-0 |
| 2018-09-25 | Comerciantes Unidos | Sport Boys | Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2018-06-07 | Sport Boys | Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.3%, draw 26.2%, away 24.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 3.56 | 3.76 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 1.87 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 1.87 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.95 | 3.55 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.86 | 3.56 | 3.74 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88 | 3.64 | 3.77 |
| SBO | 1.86 | 3.07 | 3.26 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .