Sport Boys
vs
UTC Cajamarca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sport Boys
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.54 vs 0.96.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca
| Probability | Sport Boys | Draw | UTC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.8% | 17.7% | 11.4% |
| Market | 62.0% | 22.5% | 15.4% |
| Final | 64.2% | 21.3% | 14.4% |
| Edge | +2.2% | -1.2% | -1.0% |
Why Sport Boys
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.54 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sport Boys below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.54, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.1% per unit staked (our 64.2% × 1.54 − 1).
Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca match preview
Sport Boys enters the match against UTC Cajamarca with a strong probability of winning at 70%, while UTC Cajamarca has an 11% chance of victory. The expected goals for Sport Boys is 2.32, significantly higher than UTC Cajamarca's 0.85. Recent form shows Sport Boys with two wins in their last three matches, while UTC Cajamarca has struggled, losing six of their last seven games.
Historically, the last three encounters between these teams have resulted in three draws, indicating a competitive dynamic. Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-0 in favor of Sport Boys, with a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sport Boys and UTC Cajamarca expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.51
Sport Boys and UTC Cajamarca attack and defence ratings
Sport Boys
UTC Cajamarca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Atletico Grau vs Cusco
- ADT vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats
- FC Cajamarca v Alianza Atletico — match page
- FBC Melgar v Juan Pablo II College — match page
- Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo — team news & stats
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Alianza Lima — match page
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos
- Universitario vs UCV Moquegua — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Boys | 64.2% | 1.56 | +2.2% | 1.54 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.6% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sport Boys win | 49.9% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Boys | 64.2% |
| Draw | 21.3% | |
| UTC Cajamarca | 14.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% |
| No | 42.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sport Boys win | 49.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 29.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 3-0 | 8.2% |
Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca stats
Sport Boys and UTC Cajamarca recent form
| Sport Boys |
DWWLLD |
| UTC Cajamarca |
LWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sport Boys and UTC Cajamarca season so far
Sport Boys record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
UTC Cajamarca record
- They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | UTC Cajamarca | Sport Boys | Peru Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Sport Boys | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2025-06-28 | UTC Cajamarca | Sport Boys | Peru Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.0%, draw 22.5%, away 15.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.54 | 4.10 | 5.52 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.90 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.50 | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.48 | 4.10 | 6.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.49 | 4.28 | 5.99 |
| SBO | 1.41 | 3.74 | 5.13 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .