Deportivo Garcilaso
vs
Comerciantes Unidos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo Garcilaso
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.94 vs 1.33.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Deportivo Garcilaso is the favourite, not a value bet.
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos
| Probability | Deportivo Garcilaso | Draw | Comerciantes Unidos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.7% | 16.3% | 14.0% |
| Market | 61.9% | 21.3% | 16.8% |
| Final | 63.9% | 20.1% | 16.1% |
| Edge | +2.0% | -1.3% | -0.7% |
Why Deportivo Garcilaso
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.94 vs 1.33.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.9% per unit staked (our 63.9% × 1.52 − 1).
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos match preview
Deportivo Garcilaso is favored to win against Comerciantes Unidos, with a 70% probability according to our model. The expected goals suggest a strong performance from Garcilaso at 2.80, compared to 1.22 for Comerciantes Unidos. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, with a 9% chance of occurring. Additionally, there is a 76% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Deportivo Garcilaso has had mixed results with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Comerciantes Unidos has recorded two wins, three draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. Historically, in their last three encounters, Garcilaso has secured one win and two draws against Comerciantes Unidos, who have yet to win in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportivo Garcilaso and Comerciantes Unidos expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.27
Deportivo Garcilaso and Comerciantes Unidos attack and defence ratings
Deportivo Garcilaso
Comerciantes Unidos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 63.9% | 1.57 | +2.0% | 1.52 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.9% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Garcilaso win | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 63.9% |
| Draw | 20.1% | |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 16.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.2% |
| No | 29.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Garcilaso win | 50.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 30.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.0% |
| 3-1 | 7.9% | |
| 2-0 | 6.1% |
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos stats
Deportivo Garcilaso and Comerciantes Unidos recent form
| Deportivo Garcilaso |
WLWLLW |
| Comerciantes Unidos |
DDWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportivo Garcilaso and Comerciantes Unidos season so far
Deportivo Garcilaso record
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Comerciantes Unidos record
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Comerciantes Unidos | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-27 | Comerciantes Unidos | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2025-02-16 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.9%, draw 21.3%, away 16.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.49 | 4.35 | 5.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.15 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.52 | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.48 | 4.35 | 5.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.48 | 4.35 | 5.76 |
| SBO | 1.47 | 3.72 | 4.57 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .