Atletico Grau
vs
Cusco
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cusco
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cusco is the favourite, not a value bet.
Atletico Grau vs Cusco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Grau vs Cusco
| Probability | Atletico Grau | Draw | Cusco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.7% | 28.5% | 38.8% |
| Market | 34.6% | 27.2% | 38.3% |
| Final | 34.1% | 27.5% | 38.4% |
| Edge | -0.5% | +0.3% | +0.1% |
Why Cusco
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.1% per unit staked (our 38.4% × 2.55 − 1).
Atletico Grau vs Cusco match preview
Atletico Grau faces Cusco in what promises to be a competitive encounter. According to our model, Atletico Grau has a 35% chance of winning, while Cusco is slightly favored at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Cusco, with a 9% probability. Expected goals suggest Atletico Grau will score 1.26, while Cusco is projected to net 1.39.
In terms of recent form, Atletico Grau has struggled with five consecutive matches without a win, recording three losses and two draws. In contrast, Cusco has shown resilience, bouncing back with two wins after a mixed run. The head-to-head statistics indicate a closely matched rivalry, with Atletico Grau winning three times, Cusco winning twice, and four matches ending in draws over their last nine encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Grau and Cusco expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.65
Atletico Grau and Cusco attack and defence ratings
Atletico Grau
Cusco
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Atletico Grau vs Cusco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cusco | 38.4% | 2.60 | +0.1% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Grau | 34.1% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Cusco | 38.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% |
| No | 45.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cusco win | 18.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 61.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 0-1 | 8.6% |
Atletico Grau vs Cusco stats
Atletico Grau and Cusco recent form
| Atletico Grau |
LLDLDL |
| Cusco |
LWWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Grau and Cusco season so far
Atletico Grau record
- They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
Cusco record
- They have won 16 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 10 penalties (60%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Grau vs Cusco head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Cusco | Atletico Grau | Peru Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Cusco | Atletico Grau | Peru Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-06-19 | Atletico Grau | Cusco | Peru Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-07 | Atletico Grau | Cusco | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-28 | Cusco | Atletico Grau | Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2024-05-17 | Atletico Grau | Cusco | Primera División | 4-0 |
| 2023-09-21 | Cusco | Atletico Grau | Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2023-04-29 | Atletico Grau | Cusco | Primera División | 3-0 |
| 2020-10-10 | Atletico Grau | Cusco | Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Grau vs Cusco odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.6%, draw 27.2%, away 38.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.68 | 3.38 | 2.40 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.45 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.68 | 3.38 | 2.40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.74 | 3.45 | 2.40 |
| SBO | 2.54 | 3.05 | 2.32 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .