Universitario
vs
UCV Moquegua
Garuda Lions Prediction: Universitario
2 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 0.54.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Universitario is the favourite, not a value bet.
Universitario vs UCV Moquegua overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Universitario vs UCV Moquegua
| Probability | Universitario | Draw | UCV Moquegua |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 81.8% | 13.5% | 4.7% |
| Market | 80.9% | 13.4% | 5.6% |
| Final | 81.1% | 13.5% | 5.4% |
| Edge | +0.2% | +0.0% | -0.2% |
Why Universitario
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 0.54.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.16, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.9% per unit staked (our 81.1% × 1.16 − 1).
Universitario vs UCV Moquegua match preview
Universitario enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 83%, reflecting their solid recent form of three wins and one draw in their last five matches. In contrast, UCV Moquegua has struggled, recording only one win in their last six games. The expected goals suggest a significant advantage for Universitario, with a forecast of 2.71 compared to UCV Moquegua's 0.52.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with a 15% probability. Additionally, there is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, while both teams scoring is less likely at 38%. The recent head-to-head record shows one draw, with no wins for either side, indicating a competitive matchup despite the current form disparity.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Universitario and UCV Moquegua expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.21
Universitario and UCV Moquegua attack and defence ratings
Universitario
UCV Moquegua
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Atletico Grau vs Cusco
- ADT vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats
- FC Cajamarca v Alianza Atletico — match page
- FBC Melgar v Juan Pablo II College — match page
- Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo — team news & stats
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Alianza Lima — match page
- Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos
Before and after this match
Universitario vs UCV Moquegua markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitario | 81.1% | 1.23 | +0.2% | 1.16 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.3% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.6% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Universitario win | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitario | 81.1% |
| Draw | 13.5% | |
| UCV Moquegua | 5.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.6% |
| No | 60.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 18.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Universitario win | 61.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 18.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.3% |
| 3-0 | 12.8% | |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
Universitario vs UCV Moquegua stats
Universitario and UCV Moquegua recent form
| Universitario |
DWWWDL |
| UCV Moquegua |
DLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Universitario and UCV Moquegua season so far
Universitario record
- They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
UCV Moquegua record
- They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
Universitario vs UCV Moquegua head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | UCV Moquegua | Universitario | Peru Primera División | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Universitario vs UCV Moquegua odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 80.9%, draw 13.4%, away 5.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.12 | 6.90 | 20.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.14 | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| Betano | 1.16 | 6.40 | 14.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.16 | 8.20 | 16.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.12 | 6.90 | 20.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.15 | 7.56 | 15.14 |
| SBO | 1.12 | 6.18 | 9.64 |
| William Hill | 1.15 | 6.50 | 19.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .