Club Deportivo Los Chankas
vs
Alianza Lima
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alianza Lima
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.90.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Alianza Lima is the favourite, not a value bet.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima
| Probability | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Draw | Alianza Lima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.8% | 28.9% | 49.3% |
| Market | 19.9% | 25.3% | 54.8% |
| Final | 20.3% | 26.2% | 53.5% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +0.9% | -1.4% |
Why Alianza Lima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.1% per unit staked (our 53.5% × 1.72 − 1).
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima match preview
In the upcoming match between Club Deportivo Los Chankas and Alianza Lima, the probabilities indicate a strong advantage for Alianza Lima, with a 48% chance of winning compared to 23% for Los Chankas and 28% for a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Alianza Lima has shown a solid recent form, with four wins in their last six matches, while Los Chankas has struggled, managing only one win in their last six.
The expected goals for the match suggest a competitive encounter, with Club Deportivo Los Chankas projected to score 0.99 goals and Alianza Lima 1.52. Additionally, there is a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams have a 50% chance of scoring at least once. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Alianza Lima has emerged victorious each time.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas and Alianza Lima expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.38
Club Deportivo Los Chankas and Alianza Lima attack and defence ratings
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Alianza Lima
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
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- FC Cajamarca v Alianza Atletico — match page
- FBC Melgar v Juan Pablo II College — match page
- Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo — team news & stats
- Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos
- Universitario vs UCV Moquegua — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Lima | 53.5% | 1.87 | -1.4% | 1.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.7% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 20.3% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Alianza Lima | 53.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.0% |
| No | 53.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 46.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Lima win | 25.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 50.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-1 | 12.5% | |
| 0-0 | 10.5% |
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima stats
Club Deportivo Los Chankas and Alianza Lima recent form
| Club Deportivo Los Chankas |
DLLWDD |
| Alianza Lima |
WLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas and Alianza Lima season so far
Club Deportivo Los Chankas record
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Alianza Lima record
- They have won 19 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Alianza Lima | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Peru Primera División | 3-0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-19 | Alianza Lima | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Peru Primera División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.9%, draw 25.3%, away 54.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.64 | 3.64 | 1.70 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 3.80 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 4.33 | 3.70 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 4.80 | 3.85 | 1.72 |
| Marathonbet | 4.65 | 3.64 | 1.68 |
| Pinnacle | 4.78 | 3.72 | 1.68 |
| SBO | 4.07 | 3.39 | 1.60 |
| William Hill | 4.60 | 3.50 | 1.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .