Alianza Lima
vs
Cienciano
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alianza Lima
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.78.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Alianza Lima vs Cienciano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza Lima vs Cienciano
| Probability | Alianza Lima | Draw | Cienciano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.6% | 23.1% | 13.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 63.6% | 23.1% | 13.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Alianza Lima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Alianza Lima vs Cienciano match preview
Alianza Lima hosts Cienciano in a match where the home side is favored with a 64% probability of winning, while Cienciano has a 13% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.94 for Alianza Lima compared to 0.78 for Cienciano. Recent form shows Alianza Lima has been strong, with four wins in their last six matches, while Cienciano has struggled, recording two wins and four losses in the same period.
The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match stands at 51%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 47%. In their last three encounters, Alianza Lima has secured one win, while Cienciano has won twice. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating moderate certainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alianza Lima and Cienciano expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Alianza Lima and Cienciano attack and defence ratings
Alianza Lima
Cienciano
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
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- Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca
- Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar — team news & stats
- Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT
- Alianza Atletico v Juan Pablo II College — match page
- Atletico Grau vs Universitario — team news & stats
- Cusco vs Sport Boys
- UCV Moquegua v Club Deportivo Los Chankas — match page
Before and after this match
Alianza Lima vs Cienciano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Lima | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.7% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Lima win | 39.4% | 2.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Lima | 63.6% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Cienciano | 13.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.4% |
| No | 52.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Lima win | 39.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 36.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.4% |
| 1-0 | 11.8% | |
| 1-1 | 11.0% |
Alianza Lima vs Cienciano stats
Alianza Lima and Cienciano recent form
| Alianza Lima |
WWWWLD |
| Cienciano |
LWWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alianza Lima and Cienciano season so far
Alianza Lima record
- They have won 18 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Cienciano record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
Alianza Lima vs Cienciano head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Cienciano | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Cienciano | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Alianza Lima | Cienciano | Peru Primera División | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.