Sport Huancayo
vs
FBC Melgar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sport Huancayo
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.25.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar
| Probability | Sport Huancayo | Draw | FBC Melgar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.2% | 24.6% | 24.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 51.2% | 24.6% | 24.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Sport Huancayo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar match preview
Sport Huancayo enters this match with a strong recent form, having won their last six matches. Their expected goals stand at 1.88, suggesting a solid offensive capability. The model predicts a 51% probability of a Sport Huancayo victory, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1, which has a 10% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% probability that both teams will score.
FBC Melgar, on the other hand, has also shown resilience with their recent performances, recording four wins and two draws in their last six matches. They have an expected goals figure of 1.25, indicating a slightly less potent attack compared to their opponents. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Sport Huancayo has not secured a win, with FBC Melgar winning twice and one match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sport Huancayo and FBC Melgar expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.12
Sport Huancayo and FBC Melgar attack and defence ratings
Sport Huancayo
FBC Melgar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
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- Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca
- Alianza Lima v Cienciano — match page
- Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT
- Alianza Atletico v Juan Pablo II College — match page
- Atletico Grau vs Universitario — team news & stats
- Cusco vs Sport Boys
- UCV Moquegua v Club Deportivo Los Chankas — match page
Before and after this match
Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Huancayo | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Huancayo | 51.2% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| FBC Melgar | 24.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% |
| No | 38.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sport Huancayo win | 29.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 48.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.8% |
Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar stats
Sport Huancayo and FBC Melgar recent form
| Sport Huancayo |
WWWWWW |
| FBC Melgar |
WWDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sport Huancayo and FBC Melgar season so far
Sport Huancayo record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FBC Melgar record
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | FBC Melgar | Sport Huancayo | Peru Primera División | 4-1 |
| 2025-10-26 | FBC Melgar | Sport Huancayo | Peru Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-06-21 | Sport Huancayo | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.