FBC Melgar
vs
Comerciantes Unidos
Garuda Lions Prediction: FBC Melgar
2 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.82 vs 0.96.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos
| Probability | FBC Melgar | Draw | Comerciantes Unidos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75.3% | 15.3% | 9.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 75.3% | 15.3% | 9.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why FBC Melgar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.82 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos match preview
FBC Melgar enters this match against Comerciantes Unidos with a strong probability of winning at 76%, while the visitors have a mere 9% chance of victory. The expected goals for FBC Melgar stand at 2.89, indicating a robust offensive performance, whereas Comerciantes Unidos is expected to score only 0.96 goals. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with a 9% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, FBC Melgar has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Comerciantes Unidos has struggled significantly, with four losses and one draw. The head-to-head results show that in their last three encounters, there have been no wins for either team, with all matches ending in draws. The model also suggests a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FBC Melgar and Comerciantes Unidos expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.78
FBC Melgar and Comerciantes Unidos attack and defence ratings
FBC Melgar
Comerciantes Unidos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Cusco — match page
- ADT vs UCV Moquegua — team news & stats
- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo
- FC Cajamarca v UTC Cajamarca — match page
Before and after this match
FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FBC Melgar | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.7% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FBC Melgar win | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FBC Melgar | 75.3% |
| Draw | 15.3% | |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 9.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.5% |
| No | 41.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 24.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | FBC Melgar win | 55.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 24.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 9.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 3-0 | 8.6% |
FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos stats
FBC Melgar and Comerciantes Unidos recent form
| FBC Melgar |
WWDDWW |
| Comerciantes Unidos |
LDLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FBC Melgar and Comerciantes Unidos season so far
FBC Melgar record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Comerciantes Unidos record
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Comerciantes Unidos | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Comerciantes Unidos | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-02 | FBC Melgar | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.