Alianza Atletico
vs
Deportivo Garcilaso
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alianza Atletico
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso
| Probability | Alianza Atletico | Draw | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.2% | 24.0% | 36.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 39.2% | 24.0% | 36.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Alianza Atletico
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso match preview
Alianza Atletico and Deportivo Garcilaso are set to clash in the Peru Primera División, with kickoff scheduled for October 28, 2026. According to our model, Alianza Atletico holds a 39% chance of winning, while Deportivo Garcilaso has a 37% probability. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Alianza Atletico, with an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to the scoreline, as the model indicates a 70% chance for both teams to score.
Recent form shows Alianza Atletico with a mixed record of L-W-W-L-W-W, while Deportivo Garcilaso has a similar trend of L-L-W-L-W-W. The expected goals for Alianza Atletico is 1.80, compared to Deportivo Garcilaso's 1.73. Historically, in their last four encounters, Alianza Atletico has secured three wins, while Deportivo Garcilaso has won once.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alianza Atletico and Deportivo Garcilaso expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.53
Alianza Atletico and Deportivo Garcilaso attack and defence ratings
Alianza Atletico
Deportivo Garcilaso
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Atletico | 39.2% | 2.55 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.7% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.8% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Atletico | 39.2% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 36.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.7% |
| No | 30.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Atletico win | 21.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 60.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | |
| 1-2 | 7.9% |
Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso stats
Alianza Atletico and Deportivo Garcilaso recent form
| Alianza Atletico |
LWWLWW |
| Deportivo Garcilaso |
LLWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alianza Atletico and Deportivo Garcilaso season so far
Alianza Atletico record
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Garcilaso record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Alianza Atletico | Peru Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Alianza Atletico | Deportivo Garcilaso | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Alianza Atletico | Peru Primera División | 2-4 |
| 2025-05-16 | Alianza Atletico | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.