Sport Huancayo
vs
Alianza Atletico
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sport Huancayo
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 1.32.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sport Huancayo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico
| Probability | Sport Huancayo | Draw | Alianza Atletico |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.9% | 19.8% | 18.3% |
| Market | 61.4% | 21.9% | 16.6% |
| Final | 61.6% | 21.4% | 17.0% |
| Edge | +0.1% | -0.5% | +0.4% |
Why Sport Huancayo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.6% per unit staked (our 61.6% × 1.55 − 1).
Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico match preview
Sport Huancayo enters this match with a strong recent form, having won their last six games. Their expected goals stand at 2.11, indicating a potent attack. In contrast, Alianza Atletico also shows solid form with five wins in their last six matches, though their expected goals are lower at 1.36.
The probabilities from our model suggest a 54% chance of a Sport Huancayo victory, while both teams to score is projected at 66%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Sport Huancayo, which aligns with the expectation of over 2.5 goals at 67%. The head-to-head record in their last three encounters shows a competitive balance with one win each and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sport Huancayo and Alianza Atletico expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.79
Sport Huancayo and Alianza Atletico attack and defence ratings
Sport Huancayo
Alianza Atletico
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar — team news & stats
- Atletico Grau v ADT — match page
- Cusco vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats
- Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano
- UCV Moquegua v Alianza Lima — match page
- Sport Boys v FC Cajamarca — match page
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Before and after this match
Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Huancayo | 61.6% | 1.62 | +0.1% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sport Huancayo win | 41.4% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Huancayo | 61.6% |
| Draw | 21.4% | |
| Alianza Atletico | 17.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.8% |
| No | 32.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sport Huancayo win | 41.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 38.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-1 | 8.1% | |
| 3-1 | 7.5% |
Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico stats
Sport Huancayo and Alianza Atletico recent form
| Sport Huancayo |
WWWWWW |
| Alianza Atletico |
LWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sport Huancayo and Alianza Atletico season so far
Sport Huancayo record
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alianza Atletico record
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Alianza Atletico | Sport Huancayo | Peru Primera División | 4-1 |
| 2025-07-18 | Alianza Atletico | Sport Huancayo | Peru Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2025-02-07 | Sport Huancayo | Alianza Atletico | Peru Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-05 | Alianza Atletico | Sport Huancayo | Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2024-02-23 | Sport Huancayo | Alianza Atletico | Primera División | 4-0 |
| 2023-07-31 | Sport Huancayo | Alianza Atletico | Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2023-02-25 | Alianza Atletico | Sport Huancayo | Primera División | 4-2 |
| 2022-10-15 | Alianza Atletico | Sport Huancayo | Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2022-05-30 | Sport Huancayo | Alianza Atletico | Primera División | 4-1 |
| 2021-07-24 | Alianza Atletico | Sport Huancayo | Primera División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.4%, draw 21.9%, away 16.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.50 | 4.25 | 5.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.10 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.53 | 4.10 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.55 | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.49 | 4.25 | 5.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.49 | 4.20 | 5.71 |
| SBO | 1.44 | 3.76 | 4.83 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .