UTC Cajamarca
vs
FBC Melgar
Garuda Lions Prediction: FBC Melgar
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar
| Probability | UTC Cajamarca | Draw | FBC Melgar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.7% | 24.8% | 54.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 20.7% | 24.8% | 54.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why FBC Melgar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar match preview
UTC Cajamarca faces FBC Melgar in the Peru Primera División with kickoff set for October 23, 2026. According to our model, UTC Cajamarca has a 21% chance of winning, while FBC Melgar is favored at 54%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Melgar, with both teams expected to score at a rate of 56%. UTC Cajamarca has struggled recently, recording six consecutive losses, while FBC Melgar shows a mixed form with two wins in their last six matches.
The expected goals for UTC Cajamarca stand at 1.07, compared to FBC Melgar's 1.85. In their last three encounters, FBC Melgar has dominated, winning all matches against UTC Cajamarca. With a confidence grade of C, this match presents a challenging scenario for the home side.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
UTC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.92
UTC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar attack and defence ratings
UTC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FBC Melgar | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UTC Cajamarca | 20.7% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| FBC Melgar | 54.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% |
| No | 43.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | FBC Melgar win | 31.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 45.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.2% |
UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar stats
UTC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar recent form
| UTC Cajamarca |
LLLLLL |
| FBC Melgar |
DDWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
UTC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar season so far
UTC Cajamarca record
- They have won 4 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
FBC Melgar record
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | FBC Melgar | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-07-19 | UTC Cajamarca | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-02-08 | FBC Melgar | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.