Cienciano
vs
UTC Cajamarca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cienciano
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca
| Probability | Cienciano | Draw | UTC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75.3% | 15.7% | 9.0% |
| Market | 73.2% | 17.1% | 9.7% |
| Final | 73.8% | 16.8% | 9.5% |
| Edge | +2.1% | -1.4% | -0.7% |
Why Cienciano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.72 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cienciano below the model: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.29, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca match preview
Cienciano enters the match with a strong probability of winning at 74%, while UTC Cajamarca has a significantly lower chance of 9%. The expected goals for Cienciano stand at 2.87, indicating a robust offensive performance, while UTC Cajamarca is projected to score only 0.83. Recent form shows Cienciano with a mixed record of W-D-L-W-L-W, contrasting sharply with UTC Cajamarca's six consecutive losses.
In their last three encounters, Cienciano has dominated with two wins and one draw against UTC Cajamarca, who has yet to secure a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Cienciano, with a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% likelihood of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cienciano and UTC Cajamarca expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.60
Cienciano and UTC Cajamarca attack and defence ratings
Cienciano
UTC Cajamarca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
- Sport Huancayo vs Cusco — team news & stats
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs ADT — team news & stats
- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Boys
- FBC Melgar v Deportivo Garcilaso — match page
- Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau
- Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos — team news & stats
- FC Cajamarca v UCV Moquegua — match page
- Alianza Atletico vs Universitario
Before and after this match
Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cienciano | 73.8% | 1.36 | +2.1% | 1.29 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.5% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Cienciano win | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cienciano | 73.8% |
| Draw | 16.8% | |
| UTC Cajamarca | 9.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% |
| No | 44.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cienciano win | 55.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 24.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.1% |
| 3-0 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 8.9% |
Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca stats
Cienciano and UTC Cajamarca recent form
| Cienciano |
WDLLWW |
| UTC Cajamarca |
LLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cienciano and UTC Cajamarca season so far
Cienciano record
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
UTC Cajamarca record
- They have won 4 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | UTC Cajamarca | Cienciano | Peru Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-13 | UTC Cajamarca | Cienciano | Peru Primera División | 0-2 |
| 2025-05-24 | Cienciano | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División | 6-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.2%, draw 17.1%, away 9.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.29 | 5.10 | 9.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.27 | 5.25 | 9.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| Betano | 1.28 | 5.10 | 8.75 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.28 | 6.20 | 9.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.26 | 5.60 | 8.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.23 | 5.90 | 10.10 |
| SBO | 1.23 | 4.84 | 6.76 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.00 | 9.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .