Peru Primera División · 2026-10-08T18:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Clausura - 11

UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano

0 – 2 Full time

37′			Neri Bandiera
40′			Carlos Garcés
45′			José Luis GrandaY. López
45′			Cristian MejíaClaudio Ramírez
57′			Aldair Perleche
60′			Ray SandovalMatias Succar
61′			Claudio Nuñez
62′			Brayan AnguloJeferson Collazos
66′			Neri BandieraGonzalo Aguirre
78′			Diego RamírezMarcello Negrón
85′			Carlos GarcésDidier La Torre
85′			Cristian SouzaRotceh Aguilar
86′			Juan Diego LojasEdgar Miguel Santillán Vargas
87′			Claudio Ramírez

Estadio 25 de Noviembre, MoqueguaReferee: Edwin Ordonez

UCV Moquegua

28%

Draw

27%

Cienciano

44%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

13	Shots	25
5	Shots on target	12
43	Possession %	57
6	Corners	9
12	Fouls	14
2	Offsides	2
10	Saves	5
202	Accurate passes	264

UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano overview

Garuda Lions analysis: UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	UCV Moquegua	Draw	Cienciano
Model	24.9%	28.1%	47.0%
Market	29.6%	27.3%	43.1%
Final	28.5%	27.5%	44.1%
Edge	-4.7%	+0.8%	+3.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Cienciano

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 1.05.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Cienciano below the model: +3.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

91%

2+ goals

74%

3+ goals

48%

No goals

UCV Moquegua and Cienciano expected goals

UCV Moquegua

1.05

Cienciano

1.53

Total expected goals: 2.58

UCV Moquegua and Cienciano attack and defence ratings

UCV Moquegua

Attack

0.60 -40%

Defence

1.26 +26%

Cienciano

Attack

1.15 +15%

Defence

1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano: result vs prediction

UCV Moquegua 0 – 2 Cienciano

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 11 fixtures

Peru Primera División

Atletico Grau vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 2026-10-08
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sport Huancayo · 2026-10-10
ADT vs FC Cajamarca — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II College — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Universitario vs FBC Melgar · 2026-10-11
UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
Sport Boys v Alianza Atletico — match page · 2026-10-11
Cusco v Alianza Lima — match page · 2026-10-11

Before and after this match

UCV Moquegua, previous: Juan Pablo II College vs UCV Moquegua: odds and pick
Cienciano, previous: Cienciano – Club Deportivo Los Chankas, 2026-09-30

UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Cienciano	44.1%	2.27	+3.9%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	52.4%	1.91	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	52.1%	1.92	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	72.5%	1.38	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	53.0%	1.89	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	UCV Moquegua	28.5%
	Draw	27.5%
	Cienciano	44.1%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	47.6%
	Under 2.5	52.4%
Both teams to score	Yes	52.1%
	No	47.9%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	55.9%
	12 (either side)	72.5%
	X2 (draw or away)	71.5%
Handicap -1	Cienciano win	24.5%
	Push (exactly one goal)	22.5%
	Loss	53.0%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	13.4%
	0-1	10.4%
	1-2	9.3%

UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano stats

UCV Moquegua and Cienciano recent form

newest first

UCV Moquegua	LLLLWD
Cienciano	DLWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

UCV Moquegua and Cienciano going into this match

league record before kick-off

UCV Moquegua record

They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
They have failed to score in 12 of 27 matches.
They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).

Cienciano record

They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).

UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0UCV Moquegua wins 0Draws 1Cienciano wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-20	Cienciano	UCV Moquegua	Peru Primera División	2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.6%, draw 27.3%, away 43.1%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	3.14	3.42	2.13
Bet365	3.10	3.50	2.15
BetVictor	3.10	3.40	2.15
Betano	3.15	3.35	2.10
Betfair	3.10	3.30	2.05
Dafabet	3.15	3.45	2.26
Marathonbet	3.12	3.42	2.11
Pinnacle	3.14	3.36	2.16
SBO	3.01	3.06	1.96
William Hill	3.10	3.20	2.15

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.11 ▼ -0.29

X 3.38 ▼ -0.10

2 2.14 ▲ +0.16

14 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-02T08:10:02Z.