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Peru Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 11

Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico

1 – 3 Full time

16′Percy Liza
28′Yuriel Celi
42′Jorge del Castillo
42′Jose Lujan
45′Hansell Riojas
51′Oslimg Mora
53′Stefano Fernández
55′Carlos Zambrano
59′Jorge del Castillo
63′Yuriel CeliMiguel Trauco
68′Jorge del Castillo
69′Carlos Alberto Desio
71′Percy Liza
74′Jorge del CastilloGuillermo Larios
74′Stefano FernándezErick Perleche
79′Jostin AlarconRolando Diaz
82′Cristian PenillaJuan Jesus Quinones
86′Erick Perleche
90′Ariel MuñozJesus Mendieta
90′Guillermo Larios

Miguel Grau Stadium, CallaoReferee: Julio Cesar Quiroz

Sport Boys 51%
Draw 26%
Alianza Atletico 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 19
7 Shots on target 6
49 Possession % 51
6 Corners 2
15 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 3
3 Saves 5
250 Accurate passes 277

Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySport BoysDrawAlianza Atletico
Model58.9%24.8%16.3%
Market48.3%27.0%24.7%
Final50.9%26.5%22.6%
Edge+2.7%-0.5%-2.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Sport Boys

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.86.
  • The market prices Sport Boys below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sport Boys ↓ / Alianza Atleti → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 11% 12% 2 11% 10% 3 7% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Sport Boys and Alianza Atletico expected goals

Sport Boys 1.81
Alianza Atletico 0.86

Total expected goals: 2.67

Sport Boys and Alianza Atletico attack and defence ratings

Sport Boys

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 0.64 -36%

Alianza Atletico

Attack 1.28 +28%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico: result vs prediction

Sport Boys 1 – 3 Alianza Atletico

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 11 fixtures

Peru Primera División

Before and after this match

Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sport Boys 50.9% 1.96 +2.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.1% 1.99 — —
Both teams to score No 50.8% 1.97 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.4% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.1% 2.43 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sport Boys50.9%
Draw26.5%
Alianza Atletico22.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.9%
Under 2.550.1%
Both teams to scoreYes49.2%
No50.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.4%
12 (either side)73.5%
X2 (draw or away)49.1%
Handicap -1Sport Boys win34.7%
Push (exactly one goal)24.1%
Loss41.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.8%
1-011.5%
2-011.4%

Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico stats

Sport Boys and Alianza Atletico recent form

newest first
Sport Boys DWLWWD
Alianza Atletico WLWWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sport Boys and Alianza Atletico going into this match

league record before kick-off

Sport Boys record

  • They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Alianza Atletico record

  • They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Sport Boys wins 1Draws 5Alianza Atletico wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-10-06Alianza AtleticoSport BoysCopa De La Liga3-0
2026-09-27Sport BoysAlianza AtleticoCopa De La Liga3-0
2026-04-19Alianza AtleticoSport BoysPeru Primera División0-1
2025-11-16Sport BoysAlianza AtleticoPeru Primera División0-1
2025-07-12Alianza AtleticoSport BoysPeru Primera División1-0
2024-08-24Alianza AtleticoSport BoysPrimera División2-0
2024-03-31Sport BoysAlianza AtleticoPrimera División0-0
2023-06-25Alianza AtleticoSport BoysPrimera División1-2
2023-03-26Sport BoysAlianza AtleticoPrimera División0-1
2022-10-06Sport BoysAlianza AtleticoPrimera División2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 48.3%, draw 27.0%, away 24.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.90 3.44 3.82
Bet365 1.91 3.50 3.70
BetVictor 1.93 3.40 3.70
Betano 2.00 3.60 4.05
Betfair 1.85 3.30 3.75
Dafabet 2.01 3.50 3.75
Marathonbet 1.88 3.44 3.80
Pinnacle 1.94 3.42 3.68
SBO 1.91 3.06 3.34
William Hill 1.95 3.25 3.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.92 ▼ -0.18
X 3.43 ▲ +0.17
2 3.75 ▲ +0.47

26 snapshots recorded, from .