Sport Boys
vs
Alianza Atletico
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sport Boys
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico
| Probability | Sport Boys | Draw | Alianza Atletico |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.0% | 24.8% | 16.2% |
| Market | 48.5% | 26.9% | 24.6% |
| Final | 51.1% | 26.4% | 22.5% |
| Edge | +10.5% | -2.1% | -8.3% |
Why Sport Boys
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.85.
- The market prices Sport Boys below the model: +10.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.97, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico match preview
Sport Boys will face Alianza Atletico in the Peru Primera División on October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 51% probability of a Sport Boys victory, while Alianza Atletico has a 23% chance of winning and a 26% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals suggest Sport Boys is favored to score 1.81 goals compared to Alianza Atletico's 0.85. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% probability.
In terms of recent form, Sport Boys has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. Conversely, Alianza Atletico has been in strong form, with four wins and one draw in their last five games. The head-to-head record shows Sport Boys with one win and Alianza Atletico with two wins in their last three encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sport Boys and Alianza Atletico expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.67
Sport Boys and Alianza Atletico attack and defence ratings
Sport Boys
Alianza Atletico
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
- UCV Moquegua v Cienciano — match page
- Atletico Grau vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sport Huancayo
- ADT vs FC Cajamarca — team news & stats
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II College — team news & stats
- Universitario vs FBC Melgar
- UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats
- Cusco v Alianza Lima — match page
Before and after this match
Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Boys | 51.1% | 1.96 | +10.5% | 1.97 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.9% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Boys | 51.1% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Alianza Atletico | 22.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.1% |
| No | 50.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sport Boys win | 34.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 41.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 2-0 | 11.4% |
Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico stats
Sport Boys and Alianza Atletico recent form
| Sport Boys |
DWLWWD |
| Alianza Atletico |
WLWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sport Boys and Alianza Atletico season so far
Sport Boys record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alianza Atletico record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Alianza Atletico | Sport Boys | Peru Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-16 | Sport Boys | Alianza Atletico | Peru Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-12 | Alianza Atletico | Sport Boys | Peru Primera División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.5%, draw 26.9%, away 24.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 3.44 | 3.82 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| Betano | 1.91 | 3.35 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.97 | 3.55 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.44 | 3.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.94 | 3.42 | 3.68 |
| SBO | 1.89 | 3.00 | 3.26 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.25 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
22 snapshots recorded, from .