Cusco
vs
Alianza Lima
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cusco
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Cusco vs Alianza Lima overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cusco vs Alianza Lima
| Probability | Cusco | Draw | Alianza Lima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.2% | 29.2% | 27.7% |
| Market | 40.9% | 30.3% | 28.8% |
| Final | 41.5% | 30.0% | 28.5% |
| Edge | +2.2% | -1.1% | -1.1% |
Why Cusco
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cusco below the model: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Cusco vs Alianza Lima match preview
Cusco and Alianza Lima are set to clash in the Peru Primera División, with Cusco holding a 41% probability of winning, while Alianza Lima stands at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Cusco, with an expected goals tally of 1.41 for Cusco and 1.08 for Alianza Lima. Recent form shows Cusco with three wins in their last six matches, while Alianza Lima has recorded two wins in the same period.
In terms of goal-scoring, there is a 51% chance that both teams will find the net, and a 45% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. The head-to-head record in the last three encounters favors Alianza Lima, who have won twice, while Cusco has secured one victory. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cusco and Alianza Lima expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.49
Cusco and Alianza Lima attack and defence ratings
Cusco
Alianza Lima
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
- UCV Moquegua v Cienciano — match page
- Atletico Grau vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sport Huancayo
- ADT vs FC Cajamarca — team news & stats
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II College — team news & stats
- Universitario vs FBC Melgar
- UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats
- Sport Boys v Alianza Atletico — match page
Before and after this match
Cusco vs Alianza Lima markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cusco | 41.5% | 2.41 | +2.2% | 2.29 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cusco | 41.5% |
| Draw | 30.0% | |
| Alianza Lima | 28.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% |
| No | 48.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cusco win | 21.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 56.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | |
| 0-0 | 9.5% |
Cusco vs Alianza Lima stats
Cusco and Alianza Lima recent form
| Cusco |
WLWWLW |
| Alianza Lima |
WLDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cusco and Alianza Lima season so far
Cusco record
- They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
Alianza Lima record
- They have won 15 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Cusco vs Alianza Lima head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Alianza Lima | Cusco | Peru Primera División | 8-0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Cusco | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-09 | Alianza Lima | Cusco | Peru Primera División | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cusco vs Alianza Lima odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.9%, draw 30.3%, away 28.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.27 | 3.04 | 3.23 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.05 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.28 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.25 | 3.04 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.29 | 2.96 | 3.23 |
| SBO | 2.12 | 2.89 | 2.82 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
22 snapshots recorded, from .