Alianza Lima
vs
Atletico Grau
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alianza Lima
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau
| Probability | Alianza Lima | Draw | Atletico Grau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.4% | 27.9% | 16.7% |
| Market | 70.9% | 18.9% | 10.1% |
| Final | 67.1% | 21.2% | 11.8% |
| Edge | -15.6% | +9.0% | +6.6% |
Why Alianza Lima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.74.
Best available price on the pick: 1.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau match preview
Alianza Lima enters the match against Atletico Grau with a 54% probability of winning, while the chances for a draw stand at 29% and Atletico Grau at 17%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.50 for Alianza Lima and 0.73 for Atletico Grau. Recent form shows Alianza Lima with a mixed record of W-L-D-L-D-W, while Atletico Grau has shown improvement with D-L-W-L-W-W.
In their last three encounters, Alianza Lima has secured 2 wins and 1 draw against Atletico Grau, who has yet to record a victory in this matchup. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 38%, and both teams are predicted to score at a rate of 41%. The confidence grade for this forecast is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alianza Lima and Atletico Grau expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.28
Alianza Lima and Atletico Grau attack and defence ratings
Alianza Lima
Atletico Grau
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
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- Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs ADT — team news & stats
- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Boys
- FBC Melgar v Deportivo Garcilaso — match page
- Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos — team news & stats
- FC Cajamarca v UCV Moquegua — match page
- Alianza Atletico vs Universitario
- Cienciano v UTC Cajamarca — match page
Before and after this match
Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Lima | 67.1% | 1.49 | -15.6% | 1.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.2% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Lima | 67.1% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Atletico Grau | 11.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.3% |
| No | 57.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Lima win | 29.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 44.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.6% |
| 1-1 | 12.8% | |
| 2-0 | 12.1% |
Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau stats
Alianza Lima and Atletico Grau recent form
| Alianza Lima |
WWLDLD |
| Atletico Grau |
DLWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alianza Lima and Atletico Grau season so far
Alianza Lima record
- They have won 17 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Atletico Grau record
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Atletico Grau | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-02 | Alianza Lima | Atletico Grau | Peru Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-10 | Atletico Grau | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-18 | Atletico Grau | Alianza Lima | Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2024-04-15 | Alianza Lima | Atletico Grau | Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2023-06-24 | Alianza Lima | Atletico Grau | Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2023-03-26 | Atletico Grau | Alianza Lima | Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2022-07-10 | Atletico Grau | Alianza Lima | Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2022-02-05 | Alianza Lima | Atletico Grau | Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.6%, draw 19.2%, away 10.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.30 | 4.95 | 9.25 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 4.75 | 9.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 4.80 | 9.50 |
| Betano | 1.33 | 4.55 | 8.25 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 4.75 | 9.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.34 | 5.20 | 8.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.29 | 4.95 | 9.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.30 | 5.07 | 8.94 |
| SBO | 1.28 | 4.19 | 7.05 |
| William Hill | 1.33 | 4.60 | 8.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .