FC Cajamarca
vs
UCV Moquegua
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Cajamarca
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua
| Probability | FC Cajamarca | Draw | UCV Moquegua |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.2% | 18.8% | 10.1% |
| Market | 55.4% | 24.2% | 20.4% |
| Final | 59.3% | 22.8% | 17.8% |
| Edge | +15.8% | -5.4% | -10.4% |
Why FC Cajamarca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Cajamarca below the model: +15.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua match preview
FC Cajamarca is favored to win their upcoming match against UCV Moquegua, with a probability of 59% according to our model. The expected goals for FC Cajamarca stand at 2.32, while UCV Moquegua is projected to score only 0.78. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, occurring with a 12% probability. Additionally, there is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams scoring has a 50% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, FC Cajamarca has recorded a mixed set of results with their last five matches showing a draw, two losses, and two wins. Conversely, UCV Moquegua has struggled significantly, losing four consecutive matches before securing one win. The last head-to-head encounter saw UCV Moquegua emerge victorious, but with FC Cajamarca's current form and statistical advantage, they will be looking to reverse that outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Cajamarca and UCV Moquegua expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.11
FC Cajamarca and UCV Moquegua attack and defence ratings
FC Cajamarca
UCV Moquegua
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cajamarca | 59.3% | 1.69 | +15.8% | 1.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cajamarca win | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cajamarca | 59.3% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| UCV Moquegua | 17.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.7% |
| No | 50.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cajamarca win | 48.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 28.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.1% |
| 1-0 | 9.6% | |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua stats
FC Cajamarca and UCV Moquegua recent form
| FC Cajamarca |
DLWLWL |
| UCV Moquegua |
LLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Cajamarca and UCV Moquegua season so far
FC Cajamarca record
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).
UCV Moquegua record
- They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | UCV Moquegua | FC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-02 | FC Cajamarca | UCV Moquegua | Segunda División | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | UCV Moquegua | FC Cajamarca | Segunda División | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-06 | FC Cajamarca | UCV Moquegua | Segunda División | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-02 | UCV Moquegua | FC Cajamarca | Segunda División | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.1%, draw 24.4%, away 20.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 3.84 | 4.44 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.75 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.65 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.70 | 3.95 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 3.84 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 3.85 | 4.55 |
| SBO | 1.58 | 3.44 | 4.08 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .