Sporting Cristal
vs
Comerciantes Unidos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sporting Cristal
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos
| Probability | Sporting Cristal | Draw | Comerciantes Unidos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.8% | 19.4% | 10.8% |
| Market | 73.6% | 16.7% | 9.7% |
| Final | 72.7% | 17.3% | 10.0% |
| Edge | -3.8% | +2.7% | +1.1% |
Why Sporting Cristal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.28, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos match preview
Sporting Cristal enters this match with a strong recent form, having won three of their last five matches, while Comerciantes Unidos has struggled, managing only one win in their last five games. According to our model, Sporting Cristal has a 72% probability of winning, with an expected goals tally of 2.28 compared to Comerciantes Unidos' 0.81. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-0, occurring with a 12% probability.
In terms of scoring, there is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams have a 51% likelihood of scoring. The head-to-head record shows Sporting Cristal with two wins against Comerciantes Unidos' one in their last three encounters, indicating a competitive history between the two teams.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sporting Cristal and Comerciantes Unidos expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
Sporting Cristal and Comerciantes Unidos attack and defence ratings
Sporting Cristal
Comerciantes Unidos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
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- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Boys
- FBC Melgar v Deportivo Garcilaso — match page
- Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau
- FC Cajamarca v UCV Moquegua — match page
- Alianza Atletico vs Universitario
- Cienciano v UTC Cajamarca — match page
Before and after this match
Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Cristal | 72.7% | 1.38 | -3.8% | 1.28 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.0% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Cristal win | 47.3% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Cristal | 72.7% |
| Draw | 17.3% | |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 10.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 27.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Cristal win | 47.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 30.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-0 | 9.5% |
Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos stats
Sporting Cristal and Comerciantes Unidos recent form
| Sporting Cristal |
WWWWLL |
| Comerciantes Unidos |
DLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sporting Cristal and Comerciantes Unidos season so far
Sporting Cristal record
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Comerciantes Unidos record
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Comerciantes Unidos | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Comerciantes Unidos | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División | 1-4 |
| 2025-06-29 | Sporting Cristal | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-03 | Sporting Cristal | Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División | 3-0 |
| 2024-05-25 | Comerciantes Unidos | Sporting Cristal | Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2018-09-30 | Sporting Cristal | Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División | 0-2 |
| 2018-06-09 | Comerciantes Unidos | Sporting Cristal | Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2018-04-11 | Comerciantes Unidos | Sporting Cristal | Primera División | 1-3 |
| 2018-02-25 | Sporting Cristal | Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División | 3-0 |
| 2017-09-10 | Sporting Cristal | Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.7%, draw 16.7%, away 9.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.26 | 5.55 | 9.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.28 | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| Betano | 1.27 | 5.00 | 9.75 |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 5.50 | 10.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.28 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.25 | 5.55 | 9.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.22 | 5.92 | 11.95 |
| SBO | 1.24 | 4.78 | 6.86 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.00 | 9.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .