Garuda Lions
Today
Peru Primera División · ·Clausura - 12

Alianza Atletico vs Universitario

Garuda Lions Prediction: Alianza Atletico

2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

Bet on Alianza Atletico

Estadio Campeones del 36, Sullana

Alianza Atletico 39%
Draw 27%
Universitario 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Alianza Atletico wins
39%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
97%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
71%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

Alianza Atletico vs Universitario overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza Atletico vs Universitario

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAlianza AtleticoDrawUniversitario
Model60.1%19.7%20.1%
Market32.2%28.9%38.9%
Final39.2%26.6%34.2%
Edge+28.0%-9.2%-18.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Alianza Atletico

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.51 vs 1.44.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Alianza Atletico below the model: +28.0 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 3.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

Alianza Atletico vs Universitario match preview

Alianza Atletico hosts Universitario in a matchup where the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter. Alianza Atletico has a 39% chance of winning, while Universitario stands at 33%, with a 28% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Alianza Atletico, with an expected goals tally of 2.51 for them and 1.44 for Universitario.

Recent form shows Alianza Atletico on a strong run with three consecutive wins, while Universitario has mixed results with two wins and two draws in their last five matches. Both teams are projected to score, with a 71% likelihood of both finding the net, and a high 76% chance of the match featuring over 2.5 goals. The head-to-head record favors Alianza Atletico, who have won two of the last three encounters.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Alianza Atleti ↓ / Universitario → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 5% 2 6% 9% 6% 3 5% 7% 5% 4+ 6% 8% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 76%
No goals 3%

Alianza Atletico and Universitario expected goals

Alianza Atletico 2.51
Universitario 1.44

Total expected goals: 3.96

Alianza Atletico and Universitario attack and defence ratings

Alianza Atletico

Attack 1.36 +36%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Universitario

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Clausura - 12 fixtures

Peru Primera División

Before and after this match

Alianza Atletico vs Universitario markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Alianza Atletico 39.2% 2.55 +28.0% 3.00
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 75.5% 1.32 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.9% 1.41 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.4% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Alianza Atletico win 40.1% 2.49 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Alianza Atletico39.2%
Draw26.6%
Universitario34.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575.5%
Under 2.524.5%
Both teams to scoreYes70.9%
No29.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.8%
12 (either side)73.4%
X2 (draw or away)60.8%
Handicap -1Alianza Atletico win40.1%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss39.9%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.7%
1-17.6%
3-17.3%
Compare prices for this pick

Alianza Atletico vs Universitario stats

Alianza Atletico and Universitario recent form

newest first
Alianza Atletico WWLWWW
Universitario DLWDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Alianza Atletico and Universitario season so far

league record

Alianza Atletico record

  • They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Universitario record

  • They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Alianza Atletico vs Universitario head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Alianza Atletico wins 2Draws 5Universitario wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-26UniversitarioAlianza AtleticoPeru Primera División1-2
2025-10-01Alianza AtleticoUniversitarioPeru Primera División0-2
2025-05-11UniversitarioAlianza AtleticoPeru Primera División0-1
2024-09-15Alianza AtleticoUniversitarioPrimera División0-3
2024-04-06UniversitarioAlianza AtleticoPrimera División1-0
2023-07-04UniversitarioAlianza AtleticoPrimera División2-0
2023-05-14Alianza AtleticoUniversitarioPrimera División3-1
2022-09-30Alianza AtleticoUniversitarioPrimera División2-2
2022-05-07UniversitarioAlianza AtleticoPrimera División3-1
2021-07-19UniversitarioAlianza AtleticoPrimera División2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Alianza Atletico vs Universitario odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.1%, draw 28.9%, away 39.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.88 3.26 2.35
Bet365 2.80 3.20 2.38
BetVictor 2.88 3.20 2.38
Betano 2.92 3.15 2.32
Betfair 2.75 3.25 2.30
Dafabet 2.95 3.25 2.47
Marathonbet 2.85 3.26 2.33
Pinnacle 3.00 3.01 2.42
SBO 2.61 2.91 2.25
William Hill 2.90 3.00 2.40
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.88 ▲ +0.08
X 3.20 ▲ +0.20
2 2.38 ▼ -0.02

12 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Alianza Atletico Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
v Bet Now